258
FXUS64 KAMA 060427
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1027 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY BRINGING RAIN, RAIN/SNOW
MIX, AND SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT THERE ARE
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES. STAY TUNED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE,
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THEY
VEER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY,
CULMINATING IN A ROUGHLY 990MB (+/- 2MB) SURFACE LOW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 35 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS 850MB AND 700MB WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THAT PERIOD, AND PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.
DESPITE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH WILL WEAKEN DIURNAL MIXING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE
WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO MIX ABOVE 850MB AND POTENTIALLY UP TO
700MB. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 40 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES, AND A 60-
90% CHANCE IN THE WESTERN HALF, AND THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES HAS A 30-80% CHANCE TO EXCEED 45 MPH. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 10-15% RANGE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET
BUT PERSIST IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO HANG BACK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR
THE PANHANDLES BY ROUGHLY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
WARM INTO THE 60S WITH HELP FROM BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE... ROUGHLY 60%... HAVE THIS UPPER LOW
REMAINING CLOSED AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND BEGINNING IN THE
PANHANDLES BY AROUND SUNSET. AMONG THIS SET OF GUIDANCE, THERE IS
NOT YET AN AGREED UPON TRACK WITH SOME GUIDANCE GOING FARTHER NORTH
AND FAVORING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHILE SOME OTHERS FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK, THERE
WOULD LIKELY BE LESS TIME WITH PRECIPITATION AS RAIN, WHILE THE
OPPOSITE IS TRUE FOR THE SOUTHERN TRACK. IN EITHER SCENARIO
REGARDING THE TRACK, PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN.
THE OTHER ROUGHLY 40% OF GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
SCENARIO WHICH HEAVILY RESTRICTS OR NEGATES ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING OWING TO THE LACK OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION, LEAVING
THE PANHANDLES COLD AND DRY.
OVERALL, CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES CERTAINLY FAVOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A 60-90% CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH, THOUGH
30-60% PROBABILITIES STRETCH AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS BOISE CITY
AND NEAR PERRYTON. THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES
REASONABLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE, AND THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS ON THE HIGH- END SHOWING TOTALS THAT EXCEED 6 INCHES.
THESE MEMBERS SHOW THE 'GOLDILOCKS' SCENARIO WHERE THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS SLOW, CLOSED, AND SOUTH.
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE CONUS BY 6 AM THURSDAY AND BE AT
LEAST PARTIALLY SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS WHICH SHOULD,
HOPEFULLY, HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE TOWARD A SOLUTION SOONER THAN
LATER.
IF AND WHERE SNOW OCCURS, TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN THOSE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RESULTING HIGH
ALBEDO. HOWEVER, RIDGING IS FAVORED FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO WARM THE PANHANDLES UP QUICKLY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
PRIMARILY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CAVEAT HERE WILL BE IF WINDS KICK UP ENOUGH DUST AFTER 18Z SOME
ARTIFICIAL MVFR CIGS MAY BE CREATED ALONG WITH VIS DROPPING TO
6SM OR JUST BELOW. ACTUAL CLOUDS PRESENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
20K FT. AFTER 18Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30
TO 45 KTS OUT OF THE SSW, WITH KDHT BEING THE TERMINAL TO MOST
LIKELY SEE 45 KT GUST. ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE A PERIOD
OF LLWS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z TODAY, AND
AGAIN LATER AFTER 00Z FRI.
36
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 5 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY, A POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP CREATE MOSTLY
25-30 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. WIND
GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARD THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE
THERE SHOULD BE A 1-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 10-15% RANGE, BUT WON'T
BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE SOME UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. A MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS HOW DRY
THE FUELS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH WAS MOST
IMPACTED BY THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...
AS MUCH AS 0.25" TO 0.50" OCCURRED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 39 72 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 34 67 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 36 70 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 40 72 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 39 74 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 38 73 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 37 71 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 34 71 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 36 70 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 38 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 37 66 45 63 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 39 68 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 37 68 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 37 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ001>003-
006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36
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