947
FXUS64 KAMA 061722
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
-WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
-WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
-ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WINTER
IMPACTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WE
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THAT WILL BRING THE TYPICAL
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES TODAY.
WE HAVE A PRETTY WELL STACKED JET WITH 50-60KT JET AT 700MB ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD BE THE AREA THAT COULD SEE
HIGH WIND GUSTS THAT COULD REACH 60 MPH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND WARNING BUT HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHWEST.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS WELL. WE DO EXPECT BREEZY WINDS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE, BUT THE GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH AND THE FOCUS OF THE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE
FOCUSED THIS MORNING TO ABOUT NOON FOR THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG
850MB JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PANHANDLES
AND AS WE START TO HEAT UP, WE'LL QUICKLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MIX TO THAT JET, AND SO SUSTAINED WINDS MAY ONLY BE IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE, BUT WE COULD QUICKLY BE GUSTING TO 55 MPH. NOW AS
THE JET MOVES EAST AFTER NOON TODAY WE'LL STILL BE BREEZY IN THE
NORTHEAST, BUT ONLY 15-25 GUSTING 35 MPH. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP
AROUND 7 TO 8 PM. THIS IS WHEN THE 700MB AND 850MB JET WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE WE TYPICALLY COOL OFF AND DON'T MIX TO
THESE WINDS, IN THIS CASE, WITH THE SURFACE WINDS STILL OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE, DOUBT WE'LL GET MUCH
DIURNAL COOLING. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MIXING AFTER SUNSET,
AND WINDS COULD BE GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE WINDS, AND IT WILL START AT 9AM AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THAT THE
ADVISORY COULD NEED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER 850 JET DEVELOPS. THE STRENGTH OF THE JET IS
NOT AS HIGH AND WE MAY COOL OFF ENOUGH TO FAIL TO MIX AFTER
MIDNIGHT SO, WE'LL LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE WEATHER OR NOT IT
NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES AND IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR THE CENTER TRACK SOUTHEAST BETWEEN AMARILLO
AND LUBBOCK. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF THE PANHANDLES IN PLAY FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING AND GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
PANHANDLES ALL DAY, AND WE'LL BE GETTING PRECIPITATION, HIGHS WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE PULLED BACK A BIT MORE FROM THE CURRENT MID
TO UPPER 30S WE HAVE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE LOOK TO
BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, AND
THAT'S DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A LOWER CHANCE AT ALL SNOW
OCCURRING. AS WE MOVE FURTHER WEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST AMOUNT IS FOCUSED IN
THE DALHART TO AMARILLO AREA AND WEST. THAT COULD CHANGE WITH ANY
MINOR SHIFT IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW. SNOW COVERED ROADS WITH LOW
VISIBILITY AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THE BACK SIDE, BRINGING MILD
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S,
HOWEVER THESE NUMBER MAY BE PULLED BACK QUITE A BIT IF WE HAVE A
DECENT SNOWPACK LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A SYSTEM FROM CALIFORNIA
WILL PROVIDE WARM BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL PUT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MAYBE TOUCHING 80 ON TUESDAY IN SOME
AREAS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NEUTRAL OPEN WAVE WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
20-30 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING DUST WHICH COULD RESULT IN REDUCED
SURFACE VISIBILITY OR MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE BLOWING DUST OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE
MONITORING CONDITIONS AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY.
VANDEN BOSCH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTING 40 TO 55
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. RH VALUES MAY
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR WEST AND THAT COULD LEAD TO
RFTI'S OF 7 TO 8. OVERALL, RFTI'S LOOK TO BE IN THE 5 TO 7 FOR
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES, WITH 4 TO 6 IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES.
EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL HAVE RFTI'S AROUND 2 TO 4 AND WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WE HAVE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY WINDS WITH LOW RH VALUES.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 41 65 27 36 / 0 0 70 80
BEAVER OK 39 61 25 47 / 0 0 40 40
BOISE CITY OK 34 58 22 42 / 0 0 70 50
BORGER TX 43 67 28 39 / 0 0 70 70
BOYS RANCH TX 39 65 27 37 / 0 0 80 80
CANYON TX 41 66 28 36 / 0 0 70 80
CLARENDON TX 46 69 30 39 / 0 0 40 80
DALHART TX 33 61 23 37 / 0 0 80 70
GUYMON OK 37 60 24 43 / 0 0 60 50
HEREFORD TX 38 65 27 36 / 0 0 70 80
LIPSCOMB TX 44 63 28 42 / 0 0 50 50
PAMPA TX 43 65 28 37 / 0 0 60 70
SHAMROCK TX 46 70 29 40 / 0 0 30 70
WELLINGTON TX 45 72 31 40 / 0 0 30 80
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ001>010.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-
006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ001>003.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52
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