740  
FXUS64 KAMA 062039  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
239 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025  
 
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FROM FRIDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE GREATEST TOTALS FAVOR THE  
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, BUT AT LEAST AN INCH IS  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH  
EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025  
 
THE WIDESPREAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER  
THAN EXPECTED TODAY, AND THE WINDS HAVE STAYED MORE SOUTHERLY THAN  
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THESE TWO FACTORS HAS  
CONTRIBUTED TO RH VALUES GENERALLY HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED... BUT  
NONETHELESS, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES ARE  
CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS  
THE PANHANDLES. THE WINDS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN STRONGEST IN THE  
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS PERSISTED, BUT AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES,  
ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. CLEARING IS  
EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, AND AREAS THAT  
REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER COULD CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS  
UNTIL THE SKY CLEARS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING COMMENCES.  
 
VANDEN BOSCH  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025  
 
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO  
THE 60S AND PERHAPS LOW-70S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FROM THE  
NORTH IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE AREA IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN THE  
WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY EVENING. COMPARED TO AROUND 24 HOURS AGO,  
THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL  
REMAIN CLOSED AND THAT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE WRAP-AROUND  
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS,  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN BUT A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW  
MIX FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.  
A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS AN UPPER-LOW TRACK FROM  
ROUGHLY PHOENIX NORTHEASTWARD TO SANTA FE, AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO  
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS TRACK IS  
A PART OF A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS  
AND COULD BE A RESULT OF A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AHEAD OF  
THE SYSTEM, BUT THE JET STREAM ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE COULD BE  
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EVENTUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK.  
THE NAM, ONE OF THE OUTLIERS WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK, BRINGS IT  
IN QUICKER THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH A NORTHERN TRACK. IN EITHER CASE,  
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, BUT FOR NOW,  
THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE FAVORED TO SEE THE GREATEST  
TOTALS: THE NBM GIVES A 70-90% CHANCE FOR 2" OR GREATER AND A 30-70%  
CHANCE FOR 4" OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN  
DOWNTRENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY, THE NBM  
IS HIGHLIGHTING AN AREA FROM ADRIAN TO AMARILLO TO PAMPA FOR  
ENHANCED TOTALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH  
THIS IS LIKELY SYNOPTICALLY FORCED, THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT  
OWING TO THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY SINCE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE  
NORTHERLY BY THAT TIME. THE NBM GIVES THIS CORRIDOR A 50-70% CHANCE  
FOR SNOW TOTALS TO EXCEED 2" (LREF 30-60%) AND A 30-60% CHANCE TO  
EXCEED 4" (LREF 10-20%). THE NBM MAY BE A LITTLE BULLISH ON THESE  
TOTALS, BUT WOULDN'T WRITE IT OFF AT THIS POINT. WILL BE INTERESTING  
TO SEE WHAT THE HREF PROBABILITIES GIVE, BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT  
OF ITS RANGE.  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY  
STRUGGLE TO WARM OVER THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER OWING TO  
INCREASED ALBEDO. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FAVORED ON  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP MELT THE SNOWPACK AND WOULD  
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF  
SNOW THAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
 
VANDEN BOSCH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU MAR 6 2025  
 
20-30 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE.  
THIS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING DUST WHICH COULD RESULT IN REDUCED  
SURFACE VISIBILITY OR MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO  
INCLUDE BLOWING DUST OR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE  
MONITORING CONDITIONS AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY.  
 
VANDEN BOSCH  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 41 65 27 36 / 0 0 70 80  
BEAVER OK 39 61 25 47 / 0 0 40 40  
BOISE CITY OK 34 58 22 42 / 0 0 70 50  
BORGER TX 43 67 28 39 / 0 0 70 70  
BOYS RANCH TX 39 65 27 37 / 0 0 80 80  
CANYON TX 41 66 28 36 / 0 0 70 80  
CLARENDON TX 46 69 30 39 / 0 0 40 80  
DALHART TX 33 61 23 37 / 0 0 80 70  
GUYMON OK 37 60 24 43 / 0 0 60 50  
HEREFORD TX 38 65 27 36 / 0 0 70 80  
LIPSCOMB TX 44 63 28 42 / 0 0 50 50  
PAMPA TX 43 65 28 37 / 0 0 60 70  
SHAMROCK TX 46 70 29 40 / 0 0 30 70  
WELLINGTON TX 45 72 31 40 / 0 0 30 80  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ001>010.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-  
006>008-011>013-016>018-317.  
 
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ001>003.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...52  
LONG TERM....52  
AVIATION...52  
 
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