986
FXUS64 KAMA 062327
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
527 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE GREATEST TOTALS FAVOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, BUT AT LEAST AN INCH IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK WITH A TRACE TO AN INCH
EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
THE WIDESPREAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN EXPECTED TODAY, AND THE WINDS HAVE STAYED MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THESE TWO FACTORS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO RH VALUES GENERALLY HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED... BUT
NONETHELESS, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. THE WINDS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN STRONGEST IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS PERSISTED, BUT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES,
ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, AND AREAS THAT
REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER COULD CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE SKY CLEARS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING COMMENCES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 60S AND PERHAPS LOW-70S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FROM THE
NORTH IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY EVENING. COMPARED TO AROUND 24 HOURS AGO,
THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN CLOSED AND THAT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THUS,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN BUT A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS AN UPPER-LOW TRACK FROM
ROUGHLY PHOENIX NORTHEASTWARD TO SANTA FE, AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS TRACK IS
A PART OF A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND COULD BE A RESULT OF A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, BUT THE JET STREAM ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE COULD BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EVENTUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK.
THE NAM, ONE OF THE OUTLIERS WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK, BRINGS IT
IN QUICKER THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH A NORTHERN TRACK. IN EITHER CASE,
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, BUT FOR NOW,
THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE FAVORED TO SEE THE GREATEST
TOTALS: THE NBM GIVES A 70-90% CHANCE FOR 2" OR GREATER AND A 30-70%
CHANCE FOR 4" OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
DOWNTRENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY, THE NBM
IS HIGHLIGHTING AN AREA FROM ADRIAN TO AMARILLO TO PAMPA FOR
ENHANCED TOTALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LIKELY SYNOPTICALLY FORCED, THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OWING TO THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY SINCE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE
NORTHERLY BY THAT TIME. THE NBM GIVES THIS CORRIDOR A 50-70% CHANCE
FOR SNOW TOTALS TO EXCEED 2" (LREF 30-60%) AND A 30-60% CHANCE TO
EXCEED 4" (LREF 10-20%). THE NBM MAY BE A LITTLE BULLISH ON THESE
TOTALS, BUT WOULDN'T WRITE IT OFF AT THIS POINT. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE WHAT THE HREF PROBABILITIES GIVE, BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT
OF ITS RANGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WARM OVER THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER OWING TO
INCREASED ALBEDO. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FAVORED ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP MELT THE SNOWPACK AND WOULD
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
SNOW THAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING THIS EVENING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KTS AND GUSTS TO 30KTS. THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 4Z, BEFORE THE GUSTS DIMINISH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND
10KTS. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AT
KGUY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
BACK TO AROUND 25-30KTS.
CULIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 42 66 29 36 / 0 0 70 80
BEAVER OK 40 63 26 41 / 0 0 40 40
BOISE CITY OK 33 58 23 40 / 0 0 70 60
BORGER TX 44 68 30 37 / 0 0 70 80
BOYS RANCH TX 40 66 28 38 / 0 0 80 80
CANYON TX 40 66 28 37 / 0 0 70 80
CLARENDON TX 46 69 32 39 / 0 0 40 80
DALHART TX 33 62 23 38 / 0 10 80 80
GUYMON OK 37 62 25 39 / 0 0 60 60
HEREFORD TX 38 66 28 38 / 0 0 70 80
LIPSCOMB TX 44 65 29 39 / 0 0 50 60
PAMPA TX 44 66 28 36 / 0 0 60 80
SHAMROCK TX 46 71 31 40 / 0 0 30 80
WELLINGTON TX 45 72 32 42 / 0 0 30 80
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ001>010.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-
006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ001>003.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...28
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