935
FXUS64 KAMA 070927
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS VERY LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OTHER AREAS.
- SNOWFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING RANGE FROM 5
TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLES.
- WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK FOR THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
EARLY MORNING H500 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SITTING NEAR LA OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME, WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS IS KEEPING THE LOWER
LEVELS WELL MIXED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 40S AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE BEING AIDED BY A LLJ THAT IS
UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS BUT THAT LLJ SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ONCE WINDS DECREASE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO DROP QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT ARE CLOUD FREE.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY.
TODAY WILL OVERALL BE A FAIRLY NICE SPRING DAY FOR PANHANDLE
STANDARDS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES EAST,
IT WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THAT FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S AREA WIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 CELSIUS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME CLOSED OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE IF NOT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO BE ABLE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. INITIALLY, RAIN MAY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BEFORE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS AS THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO PLACE
OVER THE AREA. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY SEE SNOW AS PRECIPITATION
OVERTAKES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN, INCLUDING IN THE DGZ, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SNOW RATES UPWARDS
OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. CURRENT SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A FEW AREAS OF POTENTIAL MODERATE H700
VERTICAL VELOCITY, BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR
RATES HIGHER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN WITH THAT BEING SAID, THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BRING IMPACTS TO THE PANHANDLES AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS UPWARDS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
RECEIVING AT LEAST 1 INCH (AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HREF) FROM THIS SYSTEM, SO
TRAVEL WILL BE DISCOURAGED ONCE SNOW STARTS ACCUMULATING ON
ROADWAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VERY LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND MOST AREAS MAY NOT EVEN GET TO THE
MID 30S DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
SNOWFALL WILL START TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. NEW RUNS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ARE STARTING TO
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL AREA OF HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK. THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT
NOW AS THIS IS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER AREAS. WHAT IS WORKING IN THAT SOLUTIONS
FAVOR HOWEVER, IS THAT THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE FORECAST H700 VERTICAL VELOCITY VALUES ARE
THE STRONGEST WITH THESE SOLUTIONS AND THE HREF SUGGESTS THAT
THERE IS UPWARDS OF A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR OR HIGHER ACROSS THE EAST. IF THAT DOES OCCUR, CANNOT
RULE OUT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA (4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST) FROM BEING ACHIEVED. IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THIS WOULD LEAD
TO FURTHER WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
OVERALL A FAIRLY BENIGN LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WINTER IMPACTS TO THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON SNOW PACK FROM
THAT SYSTEM. THE CURRENT NBM TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY WAY
TOO HIGH FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWEST WHERE
THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT WILL NOT
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
SNOW PANS OUT. WEAK H500 RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A VERY CONDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT MAY ARISE GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, BUT TO PINPOINT
ANY SPECIFIC AREAS IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THAT SYSTEM BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FAST MOVING TROUGH. AS THAT
SYSTEM EXITS, ANOTHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS ARE SEEING A
LITTLE DROP IN VIS OR SOME CLOUD LAYER DUE TO DUST MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THIS EVENING AT KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND 30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 15KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW, WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON AT KGUY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT KAMA.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTH, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15-20KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS.
CULIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 66 28 35 24 / 0 80 90 40
BEAVER OK 62 27 41 21 / 0 60 60 10
BOISE CITY OK 59 23 37 20 / 10 90 90 0
BORGER TX 69 30 38 24 / 10 80 90 30
BOYS RANCH TX 66 29 36 23 / 10 90 90 30
CANYON TX 66 29 35 24 / 0 80 90 30
CLARENDON TX 71 31 39 26 / 0 40 90 50
DALHART TX 62 24 35 19 / 10 90 90 10
GUYMON OK 61 26 36 21 / 0 70 80 10
HEREFORD TX 66 29 36 24 / 0 80 90 30
LIPSCOMB TX 66 30 39 24 / 0 50 80 30
PAMPA TX 66 29 36 25 / 10 60 90 40
SHAMROCK TX 72 31 39 26 / 10 30 90 60
WELLINGTON TX 74 33 41 27 / 0 30 90 60
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR TXZ001-002-006-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ003>005-008>020-317.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR OKZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...28
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