667
FXUS64 KAMA 072051
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
251 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
- A DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES STARTING
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
PANHANDLES.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
SATURDAY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 12 AM
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
AS OF 1 PM, A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHICH IS
AROUND 4 HOURS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE FROM EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. MEANWHILE,
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SPINNING OVER ARIZONA. ALPW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IS MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND MOISTURE PROFILES
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND, AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE PANHANDLES, THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO SNOW. GIVEN THAT THE COLD
FRONT HAS PROGRESSED QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED, WON'T BE SURPRISED IF
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS QUICKER. BY TOMORROW'S SUNRISE, THERE
IS A 70-95% CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. OWING TO MODEST
FORCING IN THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT, THE REASONABLE MAXIMUM SNOW
RATES WITH 10:1 TO 14:1 RATIOS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 1"/HOUR, BUT
AROUND 0.2"/HOUR TO 0.6"/HOUR LOOKS MOST LIKELY.
WHILE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES, THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES
AS A POTENT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A NEW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS OWING TO ENHANCED
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE VIA THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES AND
WRAP INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE CLOSED TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO HOW HOW COOL THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE AT THAT TIME. THE MOST RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS SWITCH
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW A FEW TIMES WHICH SEEMS FAIRLY UNREALISTIC
GIVEN CLOUD COVER, ONGOING PRECIPITATION, AND LACK OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WON'T BE MUCH
WARMING THROUGH THE DAY... IF AT ALL. THEREFORE, CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THAT THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL MOSTLY BE SNOW... WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
LEAST INITIALLY.
WHILE MOST, IF NOT ALL GUIDANCE NOW HAVE THIS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING,
THE CAMS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION RATES DUE TO THE
MORE INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK. THE MAXIMUM
PRECIPITATION RATES ON THE CAMS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.2"/HOUR TO
0.3"/HOUR... THOUGH 0.05"/HOUR TO 0.1"/HOUR LOOKS TO BE MORE COMMON.
DESPITE LOWER SNOW RATIOS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES
COMPARED TO THE NORTHWEST, THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE BAND COULD
TRANSLATE TO SNOW RATES OF 1"/HOUR TO 2"/HOUR. AMONG THE CAMS, THERE
IS CURRENTLY AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE TO EXCEED 4" OF SNOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... THOUGH THAT PROBABILITY IS
BEING WEIGHED DOWN BY THE HRRR AND ARW WHICH SEEM UNREALISTICALLY
WARM RESULTING IN RAIN BEING FAR MORE PROMINENT. A WINTER STORM
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED LATER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
OVERALL, STILL FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES TO SEE
THE MOST SNOW WITH THE NBM GIVING A 30-60% CHANCE TO EXCEED 5".
EXPECTING SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER
ON SATURDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS ALSO FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK, CLEARING SKY, AND CONTINUED (ALBEIT
MODEST) COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AT LEAST INTO
THE LOW-20S... WON'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE LOWS IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE SNOWPACK. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-FREEZING ON ROADS AS A
RESULT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FRESH
SNOWPACK, CLEAR SKY, AND WEAK WINDS. HAVE LEFT THE NBM ALONE FOR
NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO LOWER SUNDAY'S HIGHS ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR
WHERE THE SNOWPACK ENDS UP AND HOW QUICKLY IT MELTS.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE AND HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 60S AND 70S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A POTENTIALLY VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND PART OF THE
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS... POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS LIFR. SCATTERED RAIN
MAY BEGIN IN THE IN THE VICINITY OF DALHART AND GUYMON THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY IMPACTING
AMARILLO. THE STARTING AND ENDING TIME OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO EXPECT SOME CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 32 36 24 57 / 80 100 50 0
BEAVER OK 32 41 22 63 / 60 70 20 0
BOISE CITY OK 28 40 21 58 / 90 90 10 0
BORGER TX 35 38 25 60 / 80 100 40 0
BOYS RANCH TX 33 35 23 60 / 90 100 30 0
CANYON TX 33 36 25 58 / 70 100 40 0
CLARENDON TX 34 37 28 58 / 50 90 60 0
DALHART TX 31 36 20 58 / 90 90 20 0
GUYMON OK 32 37 21 61 / 80 90 10 0
HEREFORD TX 33 36 24 59 / 70 90 30 0
LIPSCOMB TX 33 39 25 59 / 50 90 40 0
PAMPA TX 32 35 25 57 / 70 100 50 0
SHAMROCK TX 35 36 26 58 / 40 100 70 0
WELLINGTON TX 34 37 28 59 / 40 90 70 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR TXZ001-002-006-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ003>005-008>020-317.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR OKZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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