981
FXUS64 KAMA 081129
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE FORECAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- LESSER, BUT STILL IMPACTFUL, SNOW TOTALS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
WHERE TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
THE WELL ADVERTISED H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE
OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR HAS MOVED IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE NORTHWEST UP
TO THE LOW 40S TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST RADAR SCANS INDICATE THAT
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POTENTIALLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST, LIGHT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND AS WE
HAVE SEEN BASED ON CAMERAS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
SNOW IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES, THE
TREND WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND
SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 1 INCH BASED ON THESE
TRENDS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THESE
AREAS IN THE EVENT THAT MODELS ARE LEADING US IN THE WRONG
DIRECTION WITH THIS EVENT. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS IS THAT SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST HAVE INCREASED. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ARE MAINLY DUE TO WELL ADVERTISED SNOW BANDING.
THESE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS SHOULD FORM DUE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS LEADING TO THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY PRODUCING ENHANCED LIFT
TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENHANCED MID
LEVEL LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
CONCERN IN MIND, HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. CANNOT
RULE OUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REACHING 6 INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG OR
NORTH OF I-40 AND HIGHWAY 60 AS THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEW WARNING AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
TX PANHANDLE MAY ALSO REACH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT PANNING OUT IS NOT THE HIGHEST AT THIS TIME TO UPGRADE TO
A WARNING.
THE MAIN AREA THAT IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IS THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS MAINLY IN PART DUE TO THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT THIS AREA IS AT A LOWER ELEVATION.
THE LATEST NBM IS DEFINITELY LEANING INTO THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE, WHICH DOES NOT EVEN GIVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY TO GET 1 INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER, THE HREF IS
THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE, KEEPING THINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE THAT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY WINTER STORM WARNING
LEVELS OF SNOWFALL (4 INCHES OR HIGHER). MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE (A TREND THAT WAS NOTICED YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS
TIME) THAT ENHANCED H700 VERTICAL VELOCITY WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS LIFT COINCIDES WITH HIGHER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. THE NBM
DOES HAVE THE HIGHER PRECIP FOR THIS AREA, BUT WHERE THE NBM
STRUGGLES IS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THESE SITUATIONS WHERE
THERE IS ONGOING WINTRY PRECIP ALL DAY ALONG WITH A COOL AIR MASS
IN PLACE. THE NBM TYPICALLY IS TOO WARM IN THESE SITUATIONS AND
MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SNOW OCCURRING
ACROSS THIS AREA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN OTHER THAN THE SURFACE WHERE TEMPS MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE GFS IS
EVEN COOLER ALOFT THAN THE NAM DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. WITH
ALL THAT BEING SAID, AM CURRENTLY LEANING ON THE HREF SOLUTION
PANNING OUT MORE THAN THE NBM, BUT WILL ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE HREF
MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH WITH SNOW TOTALS. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL KEEP THEM UNDER WARNING LEVEL AT THIS
TIME. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY AS
THE HREF INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE PRECIPITATION BANDS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
IS. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME BIAS CORRECTED MODELS TO LOWER HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RECEIVE
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY STILL MUCH
TOO HIGH FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE, BUT
WILL WAIT TO MAKE MORE DRASTIC ADJUSTMENTS UNTIL WE SEE WHERE THE
SNOW OCCURS.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL SET UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ALONG WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY STILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON LINGERING SNOWPACK. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUD COVER, BUT NOT FOR
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER STRONG H500 STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM ARE UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE QUITE BREEZY TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY ON
FRIDAY SHOULD THE OVERALL CONSENSUS LREF BLENDS BE BELIEVED IN
KEEPING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LATE NEXT WEEK, ALL DEPENDENT UPON HOW DRY THE FUELS ARE AT THAT
POINT.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
NOT IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING AROUND
22-00Z. ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS END AT THE SITES, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN SHORTLY AFTER ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 35 24 54 31 / 100 70 0 0
BEAVER OK 40 22 63 30 / 60 20 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 36 20 59 29 / 90 10 0 0
BORGER TX 37 25 59 32 / 90 60 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 35 22 58 27 / 100 50 0 0
CANYON TX 35 24 55 28 / 100 70 0 0
CLARENDON TX 36 27 56 32 / 100 80 0 0
DALHART TX 34 19 56 25 / 90 30 0 0
GUYMON OK 38 21 59 29 / 80 20 0 0
HEREFORD TX 34 23 56 29 / 100 50 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 38 25 59 32 / 90 50 0 0
PAMPA TX 35 24 55 32 / 90 70 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 37 25 55 30 / 100 90 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 37 27 56 30 / 100 90 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-
006-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ003>005-008>011-014>016-019-020-317.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ012-013-
017-018.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ002-
003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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