839
FXUS64 KAMA 090531 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
- WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY ALONG I-40 SOUTHWARD.
- DUE TO MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL MELTING
OF THE SNOW, EXACT TOTALS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE DETERMINE BUT
EXPECT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
-SPRING LIKE WEATHER RETURNS AFTER TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
SOME SNOW HAS FALLEN ALREADY, WHILE MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT, DELAYING THE
ONSET OF SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FALLING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE AS OF
THIS WRITING AND MAY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW VERY SOON. AMARILLO
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE HAS SEEN A BIT OF A WARM UP
AS WELL WITH AMARILLO REACHING A HIGH OF 40 DEGREES. THIS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
BETTER START TIME FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE AROUND 3 PM NOW, THIS
IS WHEN MODELS SUGGEST A RAMP UP OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 9 PM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TO INCLUDE THE I-40
CORRIDOR.
WHILE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES CONTINUE TO SEE
ON AND OFF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, THESE AREAS MAY BE DONE WITH
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY. STILL WATCHING FOR CHANGES
THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT MAY BE ABLE TO END ANY ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW HEAVY THE SNOW WILL GET AND LONG OF AN
EVENT WITH STRAIGHT SNOW THAT WILL ACCUMULATE WITHOUT MUCH
MELTING. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING INTO AROUND MIDNIGHT. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THAT SHOULD BE IT.
TOMORROW, THE FA WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF H85 TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 7 DEGREES C OR SO. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOWPACK IS LEFT
IN THE MORNING AFTER THIS WET AND HEAVY SNOW WILL DETERMINE THE
HIGHS FOR TOMORROW. WITHOUT SNOW ON THE GROUND THE H85
TEMPERATURES AROUND 7 C WOULD FAVOR HIGHS AROUND 55 FOR AMARILLO.
SOME AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY BE HELD BACK TO THE UPPER 40S OR
LOWER 50S. ALL IN ALL THOUGH, SHOULD SEE A QUICK BOUNCE BACK FROM
MOST IMPACTS CAUSED BY THE SNOW. WITH THE NATURE OF THIS SNOW AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW
WILL BE GONE BY LATE TOMORROW.
36
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN BY MON WITH SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK. A MILD COLD FRONT WILL DROP
AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S ON TUE FROM THE EXPECTED 70S ON
MON. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON WED. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THU UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. WHILE MOST
OF THE WEEK WILL BE YOUR TYPICAL BREEZY DAYS, ALL EYES WILL BE ON
FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS.
THE NEXT EXPECTED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE FA THU NIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING AN ASSOCIATED H5
JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 TO 105 KTS SHOULD BE LAYING UP OVER THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES BASED ON THE GFS. ALSO THE GFS HAS A H85 JET
AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS LAID UP OVER THE FA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STACKED JETS ALONG WITH A STRONG LEESIDE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER CO/KS/NE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT RUNS OF THE NBM
ALREADY HAVE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE FORECAST.
THE NBM90 HAS WARNING LEVEL WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 40
TO 45 MPH RANGE. THE HIGHER WINDS SHOW UP IN A TYPICAL FASHION
BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT MAKING FOR A VERY DRY AND DOWNSLOPING WIND.
BECAUSE OF THE FRONT THOUGH TEMPERATURE ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR AN AFTERNOON HIGH. HOW MUCH MOISTURE SHOWS UP
TODAY AND IF WE CAN SEE ANY GREEN-UP IN THE VEGETATION THROUGH THE
WEEK WILL DETERMINE HOW BAD OF A FIRE WEATHER DAY FRIDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE AS RH VALUES PLUMMET ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
36
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER, FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION, ESPECIALLY NEAR AMA WHERE MORE SNOW FELL. FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THAT HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AS THEY TURN
FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO MORE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 25 55 30 74 / 80 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 23 63 30 79 / 10 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 20 59 29 76 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 26 60 32 78 / 20 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 24 58 27 76 / 20 0 0 0
CANYON TX 25 56 28 74 / 100 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 28 57 32 75 / 100 0 0 0
DALHART TX 20 57 26 73 / 10 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 22 60 29 77 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 24 57 29 74 / 70 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 26 60 32 77 / 10 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 25 56 32 76 / 40 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 27 56 30 74 / 90 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 29 56 29 74 / 100 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ011-
014>016-019-020-317.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ012-013-
017-018.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...15
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