787
FXUS64 KAMA 112307
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
607 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY THIS
COMING WEEKEND WHERE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 90S.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
ZONAL PATTERN AS A TROUGH TRANSITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. AS THIS IS OCCURRING ANOTHER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE SW CALIFORNIA COAST. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES WILL SET UP A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WHICH IS CURRENTLY SETTING UP A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH.
WHILE THE LEE-TROUGH IS FORMING TODAY IT WILL HAVE A MINIMAL
IMPACT TO THE WINDS. THAT WE LEAVE THE REST OF TODAY DRY AND WARM
WITH SUNNY SKIES. ONCE THE LEE-TROUGH FULLY MATURES IT WILL DETACH
AND DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. IN DOING SO
IT WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHICH WILL FAVOR
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER WARMER AIR THAT WILL
FURTHER DRY AND WARM THROUGH ADIABATIC COMPRESSION. THIS WILL
CAUSE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER LARGE
SWATHS OF THE PANHANDLES. IN THE NW TX AND OK PANHANDLES A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY THE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF CONTINUING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE OVERALL WEAKER WINDS MEANS SUNDAY IS MORE
LIKELY TO SEE ELEVATED RATHER THAN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TO FURTHER HAMPER COMPLICATE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH PLAINS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF ENTERING AND STALLING IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. WHILE
THIS BRING A SMALL DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
THE RH IT SHOULDN'T PREVENT THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OF
SUNDAY. THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF
BEING HOT WITH HIGHS APPROACHING TO EVEN EXCEEDING RECORD LEVELS.
THIS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH A LOW
CHANCE THAT EVEN 100 MAY BE REACHED IN THE HOTTEST AREAS. SUNDAY
WITH THE STALLING COLD FRONT IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE 80S NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT AND 90S TO EVEN 100S SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
SH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF RESUMING ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A COOL DOWN TO THE PANHANDLES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
TO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY AIR LINGERING
OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF KEEPING
SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THEN FOR NEXT MIDWEEK TO END OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN HAD HIGH
ODDS THAN NOT OF BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EITHER WEATHER SYSTEMS OR A
BROAD NORTH WEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENTLY
ANY WEATHER SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO BE
MOISTURE POOR. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER IF ANY OF
THESE WEATHER SYSTEM BECOMING STRONGER OR ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH
MOISTURE THEN MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE CURRENT FORECAST MAKES
PINNING DOWN ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM UNTRUSTWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
SH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST 15KTS, GUSTING 25KTS AT TIMES. MAIN
IMPACT TO NOT LLWS AT KGUY AND KAMA FROM THE 06-14Z TIME PERIOD
AROUND 1500FT AT 45-50KTS. LLWS MAY OCCUR AT KDHT BUT RIGHT NOW
WIND SPEED NOT QUITE MEETING THE THRESHOLD TO NOTE IN THE TAF,
BUT IF THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP A BIT FURTHER WEST, KDHT MAY BE
ADDED TO LLWS.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 51 93 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 50 94 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 94 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 53 98 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 51 95 54 95 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 49 92 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 50 92 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 46 94 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 49 95 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 49 94 53 94 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 52 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 51 92 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 49 90 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 49 90 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ001-006.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89
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