377
FXUS64 KAMA 120802
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
302 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NW PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON.
-HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE MAIN AXIS OF A LOW AMPLITUDE H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SW KS AND
ESTABLISH BREEZY SW SFC WINDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NM HIGH TERRAIN, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NW PANHANDLES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
MECCARIELLO
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. PEAK
20 FT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY RH DRIVEN WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX RFTI VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7. ERC VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60TH TO NEARLY 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE NW
PANHANDLES.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE. BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
PRONOUNCED SINUSOIDAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION, SO WE WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z SUNDAY
BEFORE GUSTS SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 93 56 92 49 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 94 53 91 45 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 93 54 88 41 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 97 58 96 50 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 95 52 93 49 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 93 55 91 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 93 60 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 92 49 89 42 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 95 50 90 42 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 93 52 91 48 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 91 58 94 49 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 93 58 93 49 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 91 59 97 53 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 91 58 97 55 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ001-006.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page