032
FXUS64 KAMA 121704
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1204 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NW PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON.
-HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE MAIN AXIS OF A LOW AMPLITUDE H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SW KS AND
ESTABLISH BREEZY SW SFC WINDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NM HIGH TERRAIN, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NW PANHANDLES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE. BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE
PRONOUNCED SINUSOIDAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION, SO WE WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WEAKER
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SPEED LLWS TO SETUP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES WITH KGUY BEING MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. PEAK
20 FT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY RH DRIVEN WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX RFTI VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7. ERC VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60TH TO NEARLY 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE NW
PANHANDLES.
MECCARIELLO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 56 92 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 53 91 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 54 88 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 58 96 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 52 93 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 55 91 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 60 94 53 68 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 49 89 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 50 90 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 52 91 48 68 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 58 94 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 58 93 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 59 97 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 58 97 55 70 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-006.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98
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