604
FXUS64 KAMA 122325
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NW PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON.
-ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY.
-HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
THIS WEEKEND A TROUGH CONTINUES IT PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE A DIFFERENT TROUGH DEEPENS OF THE SW COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT HAS LEAD TO THE CREATION OF A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS ALREADY BEING DETACHED AND MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES CURRENTLY. IT IS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED BOTH WITH THE LEE-TROUGH AND THE NORTH PLAINS TROUGH
THAT IS CREATING THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE DETACHED LEE-TROUGH THE WINDS WILL HAVE
A HIGH CHANCE OF BEING STRONGER IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES COMPARED
TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL BE DRIVING WARMER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS THIS AIR FURTHER COMPRESSES AND WARMS IT WILL CAUSE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL SEE THE
HIGH JUMP INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHILE THE RH PLUMMETS
DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS IS CREATING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE FAR NORTH WESTERN
PANHANDLES HAVE THE BEST ALIGNMENT OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
DRY FUELS THUS A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. COME SUNDAY THE WINDS SHIFT TO BE MORE
WESTERLY WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PLAINS
TROUGHS STALLS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THIS OVERALL WILL KEEP
THE PANHANDLES WARM AND DRY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS
COMPARED TO TODAY. NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH REMAIN
UNCHANGED. SINCE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FULLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT WONT BE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
THAT THE COOLER AIR TRULY ARRIVES IN THE PANHANDLES WHICH WILL
ALSO CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO RESUME ITS SOUTHERLY MARCH. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT MARKS THE END OF THE WEEKEND'S HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
OF NOTE THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY
REACH CLOSE TO OR EVEN EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES.
SH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BEING COOLER AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THEN ALL OF NEXT WORK WEEK A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE HAS A
MODERATE OF BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING A RETURN
OF WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD SEE EACH DAY
FOR NEXT WORK GRADUALLY BECOME WARMER AND WARMER. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT NEXT WORK WEEK WILL HAVE MAINLY DRY AIR
REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS MAKES IT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
THAT DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY COMPARED
TO ANY RAINFALL. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM TO PASS AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING NEXT WORK WEEK THESE WOULD CAUSE WINDS NOT RAIN.
STILL IN THE LOW CHANCE SCENARIO WHERE THESE WEATHER SYSTEM MANAGE
TO PICK UP SOME MOISTURE THEN SOME LIGHT RAINFALL CANNOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT. OF MORE INTEREST IS THAT DURING NEXT WEEK A LARGE
TROUGH HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF FORMING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS TROUGH THEN HAS BETTER ODDS THAN NOT OF
BECOMING A LOW PRESSURE WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WORK WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM MANAGES TO TAP
INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF IT COULD BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES.
SH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR KGUY TONIGHT IS THE ONLY REAL POINT OF
CONTENTION FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD, AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES
OVERHEAD AND QUICKLY CLEARS OUT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR SKY
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS, UNTIL A
WEAK FRONT PUSHES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HARREL
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. PEAK
20 FT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY RH DRIVEN WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX RFTI VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7. ERC VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60TH TO NEARLY 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE NW
PANHANDLES. SUNDAY FURTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLES DUE TO LOW RH AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT GOING TO BE
WEAKER WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY'S WINDS.
SH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 56 92 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 54 92 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 54 87 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 58 97 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 52 93 48 68 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 54 92 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 60 94 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 50 90 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 51 90 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 52 92 48 68 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 59 94 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 59 93 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 60 97 53 69 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 59 97 55 71 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-006.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38
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