427
FXUS64 KAMA 131715
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1215 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
-ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON.
-THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO EASTER WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE WEST TO MID
AND UPPER 90S IN THE EAST. WITH DRY SW SFC WINDS, MIN RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO VALUES BETWEEN 5-10 PERCENT. WITH ERC VALUES IN
PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PANHANDLES RANGING FROM THE
55TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS, WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WITH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE SE.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
LEADING UP TO THE END OF THE COMING WEEK WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE, IT WILL BE DRY TO START FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LATEST 13/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A DEEPENING
SINUSOIDAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS A H500 LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FURTHER DEVELOPS BY
THE END OF THE COMING WEEKEND. DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN H500 LOW,
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THE EARLIEST RUNS OF
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL DATA ACROSS SECTIONS, THERE ARE EVEN SOME
DATA SUGGESTING AMPLE CAPE/MUCAPE VALUES ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF. WITH THAT SAID, BY THE COMING EASTER
WEEKEND, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
AT THIS TIME. WILL KNOW MORE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. KAMA AND KDHT WEST GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THEN FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
KGUY WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 48 67 43 71 / 0 0 0 10
BEAVER OK 46 67 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 41 62 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 50 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 10
BOYS RANCH TX 48 68 42 74 / 0 0 0 10
CANYON TX 48 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 10
CLARENDON TX 52 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 43 64 37 72 / 0 0 0 10
GUYMON OK 43 65 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 48 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 10
LIPSCOMB TX 50 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 49 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 53 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 54 72 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98
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