668
FXUS64 KAMA 140757
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING (2 AM). THESE
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATING A SEASONABLE IF NOT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ROCKIES. WITH A
1023MB-1025MB SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, THAT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE UPSTREAM, THERE COULD BE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
A COUPLE OF TROUGHS DIP INTO THE WESTERN US... ONE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, ANOTHER ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. BREEZY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES,
WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY OVERLAP BETWEEN
BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES, WHICH WOULD AVOID ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS. ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN FROM NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WHILE A DRYLINE SHOULD BE STATIONED SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY RESULTING IN A STEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING 850MB/700MB WINDS. GIVEN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (FOR MID-APRIL) AND PLENTIFUL MIXING, THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM MIXING ABOVE 700MB. AS SUCH, CURRENTLY FAVORING
25-35 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THAT SAID,
IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS STRONGER
THAN THIS; THERE IS A 10-40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH
IN THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE, AND A 30-70% CHANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. WITH THESE WINDY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER-80S TO MID-90S BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKS PROBABLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORED TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US ON FRIDAY. PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. NBM GIVES A 30-40% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE SE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH 15-30% ELSEWHERE.
THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BEGIN PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
MORE FAVORABLE DAY FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS THERE
LOOKS TO BE BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER, THE QUALITY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, AND THE TILT OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ALL IMPACT HOW PREVALENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS
THAT ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
TX PANHANDLE AGAIN, PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY, BUT THAT IS MORE IN QUESTION AS IT DEPENDS MORE ON THE
FINE-TUNED DETAILS OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE ARE
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AS OF 0513Z, AND BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS TREND TOWARD EASTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON APR 14 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. FOR THAT AREA, CURRENTLY EXPECTING
POOR RH RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-35%,
DECREASING TO 5-10% THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-80S. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, BUT IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT WINDS
WILL END UP BEING STRONGER THAN THAT; CURRENTLY SEEING A 30-70%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH, AND A 10-25% CHANCE TO SEE
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS RFTIS OF 5 TO 9
ACROSS THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES BEING MORE IN THE 7 TO 9 RANGE.
VANDEN BOSCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 67 43 70 48 / 0 10 10 0
BEAVER OK 66 35 72 48 / 0 0 0 10
BOISE CITY OK 61 37 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 69 43 74 51 / 0 0 10 0
BOYS RANCH TX 67 43 73 48 / 0 10 10 0
CANYON TX 68 43 71 46 / 0 10 10 0
CLARENDON TX 69 44 69 48 / 0 0 10 0
DALHART TX 64 37 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 64 35 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 69 42 71 46 / 0 10 10 0
LIPSCOMB TX 66 40 71 49 / 0 0 0 10
PAMPA TX 67 42 70 49 / 0 0 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 70 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 71 43 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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