866
FXUS64 KAMA 142033
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH ELEVATED
TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
- A WETTER PATTERN TAKES HOLD LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK ON SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE THE CLOSED LOW DIG FURTHER SOUTH
DOWN THE CALIFORNIAN COAST. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION HAS SEEN
DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH THIS PRESENT DIRECTION IN PLACE,
LOOK FOR DRIER AIR TO STAY PRESENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES RELATIVELY QUIET OVER TODAY.
MEANWHILE FOR TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO SNEAK THROUGH
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA SHOWERS AT BEST WITH CONCERNS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE BRIEF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IT MAY BRING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY THANKS
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY HITTING THE 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY. HOWEVER, WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT AS MODELS SEE THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVE INLAND AND COMBINE WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINATION WILL
SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEAK RIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRESENT OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN DRIER AND
WARM CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE 90S FOR THAT
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS AMPLIFICATION ALSO BRINGS ABOUT CHANCES
FOR ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH THURSDAY IN PARTICULAR
SEEING THE BEST CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, LATEST FROM THE MODEL RUNS
ARE SEEING A JET STREAK MOVE OVER IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH. THIS JET, SHOULD IT BE ALLOWED
TO BLEED DOWN, CAN EASILY CREATE GUST CONDITIONS WITH LATEST FROM
THE ENSEMBLES SEEING 50 TO 70% CHANCES OF SEEING GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND SEES MOST OF THE MODEL BEGIN TO FORCE THE TROUGH OUT OF
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND IN THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SEE
THE SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE PRESENT RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH MANY OF THE
MODELS PLACING THE EXPECTED DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE US. STILL
LATEST GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR AROUND A 20 TO 40% CHANCES OF SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. REGARDLESS, CHANCES ONLY INCREASE
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE SYSTEM PUSH CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLES. LOOK FOR SUNDAY TO BE OUR BEST CHANCES WITH LATEST
CALLING FOR A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR THE PANHANDLES TO STAY
WARM WITH MOST LOCATION STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON,
EVENTUALLY DECREASING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING
TOMORROW. BKN TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS TREND STRONGER TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY IN THE
WESTERN OK PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH,
CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS RAMP-UP THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. RFTIS OF 7 TO 9 ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES, WHILE VALUES ARE IN THE 3-5 RANGE FOR EASTERN
AREAS SINCE THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF GUSTY SW WINDS LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THERE. WETTER WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 42 69 47 86 / 0 10 0 0
BEAVER OK 35 70 48 88 / 0 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 37 69 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 43 73 50 89 / 0 10 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 42 72 47 89 / 0 10 0 0
CANYON TX 42 69 45 85 / 0 10 0 0
CLARENDON TX 44 68 47 84 / 0 10 0 0
DALHART TX 37 70 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 35 71 47 88 / 0 10 0 0
HEREFORD TX 42 70 45 87 / 0 10 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 40 68 48 84 / 0 10 10 0
PAMPA TX 42 69 48 85 / 0 10 10 0
SHAMROCK TX 43 68 46 83 / 0 10 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 44 69 47 83 / 0 10 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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