238
FXUS64 KAMA 150523
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1223 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH ELEVATED
TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
- A WETTER PATTERN TAKES HOLD LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK ON SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE THE CLOSED LOW DIG FURTHER SOUTH
DOWN THE CALIFORNIAN COAST. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION HAS SEEN
DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH THIS PRESENT DIRECTION IN PLACE,
LOOK FOR DRIER AIR TO STAY PRESENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES RELATIVELY QUIET OVER TODAY.
MEANWHILE FOR TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO SNEAK THROUGH
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA SHOWERS AT BEST WITH CONCERNS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE BRIEF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IT MAY BRING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY THANKS
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY HITTING THE 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY. HOWEVER, WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT AS MODELS SEE THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVE INLAND AND COMBINE WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS COMBINATION WILL
SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEAK RIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRESENT OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN DRIER AND
WARM CONDITIONS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH THURSDAY POSSIBLY PEAKING IN THE 90S FOR THAT
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS AMPLIFICATION ALSO BRINGS ABOUT CHANCES
FOR ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH THURSDAY IN PARTICULAR
SEEING THE BEST CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, LATEST FROM THE MODEL RUNS
ARE SEEING A JET STREAK MOVE OVER IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH. THIS JET, SHOULD IT BE ALLOWED
TO BLEED DOWN, CAN EASILY CREATE GUST CONDITIONS WITH LATEST FROM
THE ENSEMBLES SEEING 50 TO 70% CHANCES OF SEEING GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND SEES MOST OF THE MODEL BEGIN TO FORCE THE TROUGH OUT OF
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND IN THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SEE
THE SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE PRESENT RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH MANY OF THE
MODELS PLACING THE EXPECTED DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE US. STILL
LATEST GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR AROUND A 20 TO 40% CHANCES OF SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. REGARDLESS, CHANCES ONLY INCREASE
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE SYSTEM PUSH CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLES. LOOK FOR SUNDAY TO BE OUR BEST CHANCES WITH LATEST
CALLING FOR A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR THE PANHANDLES TO STAY
WARM WITH MOST LOCATION STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KTS TODAY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 10-15 KTS
THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS TREND STRONGER TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY IN THE
WESTERN OK PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH,
CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS RAMP-UP THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. RFTIS OF 7 TO 9 ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES, WHILE VALUES ARE IN THE 3-5 RANGE FOR EASTERN
AREAS SINCE THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF GUSTY SW WINDS LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THERE. WETTER WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 69 47 86 57 / 10 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 70 48 88 56 / 10 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 69 48 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 73 50 89 59 / 10 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 72 47 89 56 / 10 0 0 0
CANYON TX 69 45 85 55 / 10 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 68 47 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
DALHART TX 70 44 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 71 47 88 52 / 10 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 70 45 87 53 / 10 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 68 48 84 60 / 10 10 0 10
PAMPA TX 69 48 85 59 / 10 10 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 68 46 83 59 / 10 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 69 47 83 59 / 10 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...52
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