157
FXUS64 KAMA 151801
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
- THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- CRITICAL TO HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY ABLE TO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS STEEP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY 15-25 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, RH VALUES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AND WEAKEN SOME TO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ONLY MARGINALLY RELAXES, BUT RH VALUES WILL INCREASE WHICH
WILL PUT AN END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WHICH WILL
PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ADVECTED INTO THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA, AS WELL AS DECENT 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION, THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
AS SUCH, HAVE PUT IN 15 PERCENT POPS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. IF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES HANG IN THERE
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 750-1000
J/KG IS POSSIBLE, AND GIVEN 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR, CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES IN A MARGINAL RISK
(CATEGORY 1/5), WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SHOULD THUNDERSTORM(S) BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF 1300-1500 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING IN VERY DRY AIR TO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
A SEASONABLY POTENT JET STREAK WILL LIKELY BE JUST WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO STAY ON THURSDAY, AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND STRENGTHEN IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEEPENS, BUT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MATURES AND DEEPER MIXING OCCURS,
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MORE CONSIDERABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
30-70% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO EXCEED 55 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. GIVEN EXPECTED VERY LOW RH VALUES, THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AND MODERATELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS THAT ARE FAVORED TO SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER-
END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN TO THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
RETREATS INTO A PORTION OF THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON FRIDAY
AND A SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AS A RESULT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORY FOR FRIDAY, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE THE WESTERN
OK PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, WHAT KIND OF
TILT IT WILL TAKE AS IT EJECTS, AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE A
CLOSED TROUGH; ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL IMPACT HOW LONG SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. NONETHELESS, THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST EITHER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SOMETIME SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, THE NBM GIVES THE
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AN
INCH OF RAIN, DECREASING WITH NORTHWESTERN EXTENT WITH CIMARRON
COUNTY HAVING A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS, MAINLY BETWEEN 20-03Z. FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KGUY TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 2KFT AGL AT
45KTS.
WEBER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
CRITICAL TO HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, CAUSING POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY... BETWEEN 25-40
PERCENT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL PEAK
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CURRENTLY FAVORING 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. THERE IS A 30-70
PERCENT CHANCE FOR WINDS TO EXCEED 55 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA, AND A
10-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WINDS TO EXCEED 60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CONDITIONS RESULTS IN RFTI
VALUES BETWEEN 7 AND 8, WITH VALUES OF 9 CURRENTLY FAVORED IN
WESTERN TEXAS COUNTY/EASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 69 48 86 57 / 10 0 10 0
BEAVER OK 70 48 89 56 / 10 0 20 0
BOISE CITY OK 69 48 85 49 / 10 0 0 0
BORGER TX 73 50 90 59 / 10 0 10 0
BOYS RANCH TX 72 48 89 55 / 10 0 10 0
CANYON TX 70 47 86 54 / 10 0 10 0
CLARENDON TX 68 48 85 59 / 10 0 10 0
DALHART TX 70 45 86 49 / 10 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 70 48 88 52 / 10 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 71 46 87 52 / 10 0 10 0
LIPSCOMB TX 68 49 86 59 / 10 10 20 0
PAMPA TX 68 49 86 59 / 10 10 10 0
SHAMROCK TX 69 46 84 59 / 10 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 69 47 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-007-011.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...89
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