639
FXUS64 KAMA 160543
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
- THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- CRITICAL TO HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL, VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE
PANHANDLES. WE STILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME OF THAT
COOLER AIR TODAY SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S, WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-20 MPH. BUT THAT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KICK IN AND WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS TOMORROW. WINDS ABOUT THE SAME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
FROM A POSSIBLE MOISTURE STANDPOINT, TONIGHT WE HAVE A SURFACE HIGH
EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO. THIS BROAD HIGH WORKING WITH THE LEE
SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DRAW UP SOME INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
PANHANDLES FROM AMARILLO TO GUYMON AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WE'LL GET
A PSEUDO-DRYLINE SETUP ALONG THAT LINE FROM AMA TO GUY, BUT NOT A
VERY HIGH DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
YOU SUPPORT, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THAT
LINE OF CONVERGENCE TO GET SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A GOOD
LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN TWO STACKS OF THE
PANHANDLES AFTER 7PM ON WEDNESDAY, AND IF A STORM CAN GET GOING
ALONG THAT BOUNDARY AND INTO THAT ENVIRONMENT, THEN THERE'S
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, AND SPC ONLY HAS A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THAT'S JUST
FOR THE BEAVER COUNTY OK AREA, AS MOST MODELS ARE NOT EVEN
CONVECTING AND KEEPING THINGS CAPPED OFF.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KS. WHERE THE WINDS WILL HOLD UP 10-15MPH OVERNIGHT EAST OF
THE AMA TO GUY LINE THE LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SO QUITE A MILD NIGHT, WHERE LIGHTER MORE WESTERLY WINDS
IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
THURSDAY A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CO AREA. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. A MODERATE
500MB JET STREAK WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE JET WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN, MAINLY FROM THE DALHART TO GUYMON
AREA AND NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE, BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE ABSOLUTE
LIMIT TO THOSE STRONGER GUSTS, THAT'S JUST THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES, WHICH RIGHT NOW IS ABOUT 30-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
50MPH. OVERALL, SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BE 25 TO 35
SUSTAINED, THE HIGHER WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWER WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ON THURSDAY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLES (SEE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION).
FRIDAY...IT'S ALL ABOUT THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE TRACK OF
THE LEE SURFACE LOW, AS WELL AS HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE RETREATS.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES, AND THAT RANGES FROM
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, MORE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLES, DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PARTIALLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, OR WE COULD EVEN GET A TRIPLE POINT SETUP SOMEWHERE IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL ALL HAZARDS SEVERE
SCENARIO FOR A PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IS RIGHT NOW
ON THE 50/50 SIDE OF THINGS, AS WE STILL DON'T HAVE A CLEAR
ALIGNMENT IN THE MODELS TO TIP THE SCALE EITHER WAY. HOPEFULLY AS
WE START GETTING CLOSER, THE HIGH RES MODELS WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON IF WE WILL HAVE MORE SEVERE WEATHER, OR FIRE WEATHER, OR
IT COULD BE A MIXED BAG IF THE TRIPLE POINT OCCURS.
SATURDAY IS IN A SIMILAR BOAT AS FRIDAY. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLES. AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD GO FROM CLIPPING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES, TO RIGHT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES, OR
COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES TAKING THE MOISTURE TO THROUGH
LUBBOCK'S AREA AND LEAVING OUR AREA DRY. POPS ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THERE ARE MORE SOLUTIONS
LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR AREA GETTING MOISTURE, V.S. THE
DRY SLOT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAS THE BEST AGREEMENT. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY
MORNING, AND THERE MAY BE LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY IN
SOME AREAS WHILE OTHERS STAY DRY, OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS EXITING TO
THE EAST AND A MILD TO WARM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE IN
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY
MONDAY.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
THURSDAY, A LEE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE TO PUSH VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
WILL HAVE HIGHS APPROACHING 95. WITH THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES THAT COULD DROP DOWN TO 5 PERCENT, AS
WELL AS WINDS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE SUPPORTS RFTI'S OF 4 TO 5 IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO A WIDESPREAD 8 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES.
GIVEN THE FUELS MOSTLY IN TRANSITION, THERE'S A MODERATE CHANCE
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS FOR LARGE WILDFIRES (~30%) AND A LOW CHANCE
(~10%) AT SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES, BUT GENERALLY WE ARE NOT CONCERNED
WITH ANY SGPWO THREAT AS THAT'S ABOUT A 1% CHANCE. WE DO EXPECT THAT
THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED A BIT, BUT THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL AND THAT MAYBE RFIT'S WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH. SOUTHWEST IS STILL SHOWING PRETTY HIGH MOISTURE,
MAINLY IN THE AMARILLO TO BORGER AREA, AND THAT AREA WILL ONLY BE
ELEVATED AT THIS TIME.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 56 91 55 78 / 0 0 0 10
BEAVER OK 56 94 47 73 / 10 0 0 10
BOISE CITY OK 49 87 40 67 / 0 0 0 10
BORGER TX 59 95 52 79 / 0 0 0 10
BOYS RANCH TX 54 92 52 78 / 0 0 0 10
CANYON TX 54 91 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
CLARENDON TX 60 93 60 79 / 10 0 10 10
DALHART TX 49 88 44 74 / 0 0 0 10
GUYMON OK 52 91 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
HEREFORD TX 52 91 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
LIPSCOMB TX 60 94 54 75 / 10 0 0 10
PAMPA TX 59 92 54 76 / 10 0 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 60 95 58 79 / 10 0 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 60 96 60 81 / 10 0 10 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>009-011-016.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...29
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