308
FXUS64 KAMA 300505
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
-THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR SE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
-THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BE SEVERE.
-POTENTIAL FOR A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
LATEST 18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAD SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, WHERE MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE SE TX PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS OUT FOR THE FAR SE
TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WHERE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA, INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PWAT VALUES OF +2 S.D. TO VALUES APPROACHING +3 S.D. ABOVE
THE AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WILL ALSO ADD TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE.
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE DUE TO A POTENTIAL MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS BEING ADVECTED OUT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
OBS ARE ILLUSTRATING LL DRY AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO AREAS OF THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, A MORE DEFINED AREA OF
H850-700 THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY HELP DRIVE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ALONG
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MENTIONED EARLIER WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE, INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD RESULT IN LARGE HAIL AS BIG AS 1.5-1.75" IN
SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. AREAS OF HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
GOING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, ONE MORE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE AIDED LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY
TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
A REPEAT PATTERN FOR RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCE PEAK
AROUND 30-40% MAINLY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME
OF THE LATEST 29/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES TRY AND
BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING IN, BUT WILL MONITOR THOSE TRENDS WITH UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST AS THEY COME IN. WHAT WE ARE WATCHING CLOSELY IS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A REGIME FAVORING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE PANHANDLES NEXT WEEK AS A QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IN THE SOUTHERN CONUS ALLOWS AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF AMERICA TO ADVECT RIGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION. AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAYBE IN STORE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. CHECK BACK
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12
TO HOURS. COOL MOIST AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING IN OVERNIGHT.
CIGS ARE DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA AND EVEN VISIBILITY MAY
GET DOWN TO POSSIBLE 1/2 MILE AT KAMA. RIGHT NOW DON'T HAVE
THUNDER AT KAMA, BUT THERE MAY BE NEED TO DO A BRIEF AMENDMENT IN
THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME IF A STORM POPS IN THE VICINITY. FROM
12-18Z THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH KAMA
MAY DEAL WITH SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY, SO
A PROB30 IS IN TO COVER THAT CONCERN. SIMILAR AT KGUY, A PROB30
HAS BEEN NOTED FROM 21Z-00Z.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 49 71 44 74 / 60 50 10 10
BEAVER OK 47 71 44 73 / 60 60 40 20
BOISE CITY OK 41 72 42 68 / 20 50 10 30
BORGER TX 51 75 46 77 / 60 50 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 48 73 43 74 / 40 50 10 20
CANYON TX 49 71 42 75 / 60 50 10 10
CLARENDON TX 52 70 47 75 / 80 60 20 10
DALHART TX 42 71 40 71 / 30 40 10 20
GUYMON OK 45 71 42 72 / 40 50 20 20
HEREFORD TX 48 71 42 76 / 50 50 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 51 70 47 73 / 70 60 40 20
PAMPA TX 50 70 46 74 / 70 60 30 10
SHAMROCK TX 52 70 47 75 / 80 70 30 10
WELLINGTON TX 53 70 48 75 / 90 70 30 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ019-020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89
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