587
FXUS64 KAMA 300810
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
310 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. GIVEN THIS RELENTLESS RAINFALL, FLOODING WILL BECOME A
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE COMING DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER TODAY. AS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVES THROUGH, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF
WHICH ARE ALREADY ONGOING.
TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS LOW FOR THESE STORMS TONIGHT, AS THEY ARE FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF MLCIN. STILL 800-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE
ALONGSIDE HIGH +60 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND SUFFICIENT 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND
PROVIDE A VERY LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SEVERE LEVEL THREAT. HAIL AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT
VALUES ARE STILL PRESENT THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RAIN RATES SO FAR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN
UP TO 0.5" PER HOUR. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING, AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GIVEN
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
LATER THIS MORNING, WE'LL HAVE A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND EXPERIENCE A WINDOW OF CLOUD CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BACK INTO
THE 70'S RANGE FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THEN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ARE PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH COULD
IMPACTS THAT AREA TODAY. SUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL
BE PRESENT TO PROVIDE ANOTHER LIMITED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SEVERE.
FURTHER NORTH, A CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG A
BOUNDARY COMING IN FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS FROM INTO A SQUALL LINE.
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR THIS OUTCOME.
TOMORROW, SHORT TERM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM, LOW LEVEL CLOUD, AND FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOWER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE CWA LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS
WHILE THESE STORMS ARE ACTIVE. THE THREAT OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN
BECOME SEVERE.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
FRIDAY, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE 60'S
AND LOWER 70'S FOR HIGHS DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT AND HELP REINFORCE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA, THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND WE ARE STILL MONITORING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM. CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLACE THIS
DEEP MID LEVEL CYCLONE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASING FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW SATURATED OUR
SOILS ARE FROM THE PASS TWO WEEKS OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL. OF
COURSE, THIS THREAT IS MOST PROMINENT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, BUT IT DEFIANTLY COULD EXPAND FOR OTHER AREAS AS WELL
OVER THE COURSE OF TIME. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SEVERE THREAT AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER IN TIME.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12
TO HOURS. COOL MOIST AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING IN OVERNIGHT.
CIGS ARE DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA AND EVEN VISIBILITY MAY
GET DOWN TO POSSIBLE 1/2 MILE AT KAMA. RIGHT NOW DON'T HAVE
THUNDER AT KAMA, BUT THERE MAY BE NEED TO DO A BRIEF AMENDMENT IN
THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME IF A STORM POPS IN THE VICINITY. FROM
12-18Z THE CIGS AND VIS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER 18Z. ALTHOUGH KAMA
MAY DEAL WITH SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY, SO
A PROB30 IS IN TO COVER THAT CONCERN. SIMILAR AT KGUY, A PROB30
HAS BEEN NOTED FROM 21Z-00Z.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 72 44 74 49 / 50 10 10 60
BEAVER OK 75 45 75 46 / 60 30 20 60
BOISE CITY OK 75 42 69 43 / 40 10 20 70
BORGER TX 76 46 77 50 / 40 20 10 70
BOYS RANCH TX 74 43 75 49 / 30 10 10 60
CANYON TX 72 43 75 48 / 50 10 0 50
CLARENDON TX 71 46 75 52 / 80 30 0 60
DALHART TX 72 41 71 44 / 30 10 20 70
GUYMON OK 75 43 73 45 / 50 20 20 70
HEREFORD TX 73 43 76 48 / 40 10 0 50
LIPSCOMB TX 73 47 76 49 / 70 30 10 70
PAMPA TX 72 46 74 50 / 50 30 10 70
SHAMROCK TX 72 47 76 51 / 80 50 0 70
WELLINGTON TX 72 47 76 52 / 80 30 0 60
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ019-020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...89
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