029
FXUS64 KAMA 301723
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1223 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. GIVEN THIS RELENTLESS RAINFALL, FLOODING WILL BECOME A
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE COMING DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER TODAY. AS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVES THROUGH, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF
WHICH ARE ALREADY ONGOING.
TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS LOW FOR THESE STORMS TONIGHT, AS THEY ARE FIGHTING AGAINST AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF MLCIN. STILL 800-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE
ALONGSIDE HIGH +60 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, AND SUFFICIENT 7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND
PROVIDE A VERY LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SEVERE LEVEL THREAT. HAIL AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT
VALUES ARE STILL PRESENT THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RAIN RATES SO FAR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN
UP TO 0.5" PER HOUR. THE FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING, AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GIVEN
THE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
LATER THIS MORNING, WE'LL HAVE A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND EXPERIENCE A WINDOW OF CLOUD CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BACK INTO
THE 70'S RANGE FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THEN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, TWO AREAS OF INTEREST ARE PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH COULD
IMPACTS THAT AREA TODAY. SUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL
BE PRESENT TO PROVIDE ANOTHER LIMITED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SEVERE.
FURTHER NORTH, A CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG A
BOUNDARY COMING IN FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS FROM INTO A SQUALL LINE.
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR THIS OUTCOME.
TOMORROW, SHORT TERM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM, LOW LEVEL CLOUD, AND FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOWER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE CWA LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS
WHILE THESE STORMS ARE ACTIVE. THE THREAT OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN
BECOME SEVERE.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
FRIDAY, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE 60'S
AND LOWER 70'S FOR HIGHS DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT AND HELP REINFORCE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA, THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND WE ARE STILL MONITORING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM. CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLACE THIS
DEEP MID LEVEL CYCLONE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASING FLOOD THREAT GIVEN HOW SATURATED OUR
SOILS ARE FROM THE PASS TWO WEEKS OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL. OF
COURSE, THIS THREAT IS MOST PROMINENT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, BUT IT DEFIANTLY COULD EXPAND FOR OTHER AREAS AS WELL
OVER THE COURSE OF TIME. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SEVERE THREAT AS THOSE DAYS GET CLOSER IN TIME.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MVFR CIGS TO START AT KAMA FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE TO START. PAST 20-22Z, VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES. STARTING AROUND 20Z, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VCTS
CONDITIONS FOR KAMA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE VCTS CONDITIONS
DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 44 74 49 65 / 10 10 60 40
BEAVER OK 45 75 46 71 / 40 20 60 20
BOISE CITY OK 42 69 43 65 / 10 50 50 20
BORGER TX 46 77 50 70 / 20 10 70 40
BOYS RANCH TX 43 75 49 66 / 10 10 60 40
CANYON TX 43 75 48 65 / 10 0 50 40
CLARENDON TX 46 75 52 66 / 20 0 60 50
DALHART TX 41 71 44 65 / 10 30 70 30
GUYMON OK 43 73 45 69 / 20 20 70 20
HEREFORD TX 43 76 48 66 / 10 0 50 40
LIPSCOMB TX 47 76 49 69 / 30 20 70 30
PAMPA TX 46 74 50 67 / 30 10 70 40
SHAMROCK TX 47 76 51 68 / 30 0 70 40
WELLINGTON TX 47 76 52 68 / 30 0 60 50
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29
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