671
FXUS64 KAMA 301826
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
126 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING
IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
18Z OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE
NEW MEXICO HIGH TERRAIN IN THE CURRENT AREA DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE H500 TROUGH. LATEST CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH IS SHOWING ANEMIC H700 THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION, COUPLED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY (500-900 J/KG CAPE) AS
SEEN FROM THE 12Z RAOB DATA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, 17Z ADVANCED
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS,
THERE IS A NOTABLE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE
LIFT THAT IS HELPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL BE THE MAIN CATALYST FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE TX PANHANDLE FROM WEST TO
EAST, AREAS UNDER THE TROUGH WITH BEST LIFT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT OVERALL. ESTABLISHED CONVECTION THAT SURVIVES THE
TREK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE FROM STORM GENESIS IN NM
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5" IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SE TX PANHANDLE WITH
VERY SATURATED SURFACES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL HIGH
RAINFALL RATES OCCUR LATER TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE MAIN
AREA OF STORMS MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. GOING INTO TOMORROW,
H500 NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION. WITH AN
NOTABLE H700 THETA-E ADVECTION ORTHOGONAL TO THE PERTURBATION
MOVING SE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A SECOND ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NW TO
MID 70S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE
SINUSOIDAL AS OF THE LATEST 30/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA
SHOWS, WE SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF A DRY PERIOD THE COMING
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
GOING TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SETUP WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA STREAMING
NORTH RIGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES, THANKS TO A CUT OFF LOW CENTERED
WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE SE CONUS, A VERY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NEXT
MONDAY- WEDNESDAY OCCURS. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MVFR CIGS TO START AT KAMA FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE TO START. PAST 20-22Z, VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES. STARTING AROUND 20Z, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VCTS
CONDITIONS FOR KAMA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE VCTS CONDITIONS
DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 44 74 49 65 / 10 10 60 40
BEAVER OK 45 75 46 71 / 40 20 60 20
BOISE CITY OK 42 69 43 65 / 10 50 50 20
BORGER TX 46 77 50 70 / 20 10 70 40
BOYS RANCH TX 43 75 49 66 / 10 10 60 40
CANYON TX 43 75 48 65 / 10 0 50 40
CLARENDON TX 46 75 52 66 / 20 0 60 50
DALHART TX 41 71 44 65 / 10 30 70 30
GUYMON OK 43 73 45 69 / 20 20 70 20
HEREFORD TX 43 76 48 66 / 10 0 50 40
LIPSCOMB TX 47 76 49 69 / 30 20 70 30
PAMPA TX 46 74 50 67 / 30 10 70 40
SHAMROCK TX 47 76 51 68 / 30 0 70 40
WELLINGTON TX 47 76 52 68 / 30 0 60 50
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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