789
FXUS64 KAMA 010509
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING
IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
18Z OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE
NEW MEXICO HIGH TERRAIN IN THE CURRENT AREA DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE H500 TROUGH. LATEST CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH IS SHOWING ANEMIC H700 THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION, COUPLED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY (500-900 J/KG CAPE) AS
SEEN FROM THE 12Z RAOB DATA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, 17Z ADVANCED
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS,
THERE IS A NOTABLE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH THE
LIFT THAT IS HELPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL BE THE MAIN CATALYST FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE TX PANHANDLE FROM WEST TO
EAST, AREAS UNDER THE TROUGH WITH BEST LIFT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT OVERALL. ESTABLISHED CONVECTION THAT SURVIVES THE
TREK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE FROM STORM GENESIS IN NM
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5" IN DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. IN PARTICULAR FOR THE SE TX PANHANDLE WITH
VERY SATURATED SURFACES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL HIGH
RAINFALL RATES OCCUR LATER TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE MAIN
AREA OF STORMS MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. GOING INTO TOMORROW,
H500 NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION. WITH AN
NOTABLE H700 THETA-E ADVECTION ORTHOGONAL TO THE PERTURBATION
MOVING SE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A SECOND ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NW TO
MID 70S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE
SINUSOIDAL AS OF THE LATEST 30/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA
SHOWS, WE SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF A DRY PERIOD THE COMING
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
GOING TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SETUP WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA STREAMING
NORTH RIGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES, THANKS TO A CUT OFF LOW CENTERED
WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE SE CONUS, A VERY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NEXT
MONDAY- WEDNESDAY OCCURS. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z FRIDAY. IT IS THEN THAT A SURFACE A BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS IN FROM THE NORTH. KGUY AND
KDHT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO INCLUDE LOW
CIGS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FRI. UNTIL THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO EAST. THEN WINDS PICK BACK UP OUT
OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 TO
20 KTS.
36
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 71 45 74 49 / 50 10 0 30
BEAVER OK 73 45 74 47 / 50 40 10 50
BOISE CITY OK 74 41 68 43 / 40 0 40 50
BORGER TX 75 45 77 50 / 50 10 10 60
BOYS RANCH TX 73 43 74 49 / 40 0 10 40
CANYON TX 71 43 74 49 / 50 0 0 30
CLARENDON TX 70 45 75 52 / 70 20 0 40
DALHART TX 71 41 71 44 / 30 0 20 60
GUYMON OK 74 42 73 45 / 50 20 10 50
HEREFORD TX 72 43 77 48 / 40 0 0 20
LIPSCOMB TX 72 46 74 49 / 50 40 10 80
PAMPA TX 70 45 74 50 / 60 10 0 60
SHAMROCK TX 70 46 76 52 / 60 30 0 40
WELLINGTON TX 70 47 76 52 / 70 30 0 40
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...36
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