377
FXUS64 KAMA 011049
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
549 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
-THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE.
-THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING
IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN EXITING THE AREA AS
OF THIS WRITING ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN
LOWER 48. VERY SLIGHT AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
PARENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE FA
TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT PERTURBATIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS
MORNING AROUND 15 MPH THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH H85
TEMPERATURES ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FA. TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING
SOME FORCING FOR ALOFT AND GENERATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES, THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS MCS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, THERE MAY A SEVERE ASPECT TO THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON WHEN THE MCS FIRST ENTERS THE OK PANHANDLE
AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE, STORMS MAY BE SURFACE BASED
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. CAMS
DO HINT AT SOME BOWING IN THE SYSTEM. LATER STORMS MAY BECOME MORE
ELEVATED BUT MAY POTENTIALLY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO
ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL (1"-1.5") IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR AT LEAST
SOME PARTS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
TONIGHT ENDING AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER IN THE 60S
THANKS TO THIS FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH A LOT NEGATIVE H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT ONLY WILL THE FRONT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD
REACH AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FRI
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
36
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
NEAR AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS WELL, WHICH MAY BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO
HOLDING BACK TEMPERATURES.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FA WILL BE SITTING UNDER SLIGHT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN TWO MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS. ONE OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ONE OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT IS THIS ONE
OVER SOUTHERN CA THAT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY OVER THE FA BRINGING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL. HAVE LEFT NBM POPS IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. POPS, THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60 TO 70 POPS. EACH PERIOD
THERE AFTER IN THE EXTENDED HAS AT LEAST 50 POPS. ALTHOUGH THESE
ARE 12 HOUR PERIODS AND NOT ALL AREAS IN THE FA WILL BE SEEING
THESE HIGH OF POPS AT THE SAME TIME. POPS FINALLY DROP BELOW 50 BY
WED NIGHT TO AROUND 40. BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN, THE ENTIRE
FA AS A CHANCE AT PICKING UP ANOTHER 2" TO 4" OF RAIN ON AVERAGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING OF PLAYA LAKES. WPC ALREADY HAS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
36
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
12Z TAF PERIOD. FROM 22Z TODAY THROUGH 12Z FRI, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING WITH IT SOME LOWER CIGS AND REDUCE VIS.
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NORTH AFTER 03Z OR SO.
WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR PANHANDLE STANDARDS, OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OF COURSE. KDHT AND KGUY HAVE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR THE STORMS WITH KAMA BEING A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 00Z TO 03Z.
36
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 74 48 64 41 / 0 30 20 0
BEAVER OK 74 46 70 35 / 10 50 20 0
BOISE CITY OK 69 42 66 35 / 40 50 10 0
BORGER TX 77 50 69 41 / 10 60 20 0
BOYS RANCH TX 74 48 66 40 / 10 40 10 0
CANYON TX 74 48 64 38 / 0 30 20 0
CLARENDON TX 75 51 66 43 / 0 30 30 10
DALHART TX 71 43 66 35 / 20 60 10 0
GUYMON OK 72 44 68 34 / 10 50 20 0
HEREFORD TX 75 47 65 39 / 0 20 30 10
LIPSCOMB TX 75 49 69 40 / 10 70 20 0
PAMPA TX 74 49 66 41 / 0 60 20 0
SHAMROCK TX 76 51 67 42 / 0 50 20 0
WELLINGTON TX 77 53 68 43 / 0 50 40 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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