548
FXUS64 KAMA 011730
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON THE LEESIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN
NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLES. THE LATEST CAMS INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY APPROACH THE PANHANDLES AROUND 5-6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THAT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
BOWING SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE. THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS
QUITE MARGINAL TODAY, EVEN WITH THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES,
AS CAPE VALUES WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL FOR TODAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND MADE MINOR EDITS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
-THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE.
-THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING
IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN EXITING THE AREA AS
OF THIS WRITING ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN
LOWER 48. VERY SLIGHT AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
PARENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE FA
TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT PERTURBATIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS
MORNING AROUND 15 MPH THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH H85
TEMPERATURES ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FA. TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY BRING
SOME FORCING FOR ALOFT AND GENERATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES, THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS MCS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, THERE MAY A SEVERE ASPECT TO THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON WHEN THE MCS FIRST ENTERS THE OK PANHANDLE
AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE, STORMS MAY BE SURFACE BASED
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. CAMS
DO HINT AT SOME BOWING IN THE SYSTEM. LATER STORMS MAY BECOME MORE
ELEVATED BUT MAY POTENTIALLY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO
ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL (1"-1.5") IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR AT LEAST
SOME PARTS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
TONIGHT ENDING AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER IN THE 60S
THANKS TO THIS FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH A LOT NEGATIVE H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT ONLY WILL THE FRONT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS COULD
REACH AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION FRI
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
36
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
NEAR AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS WELL, WHICH MAY BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO
HOLDING BACK TEMPERATURES.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FA WILL BE SITTING UNDER SLIGHT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN TWO MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS. ONE OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ONE OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT IS THIS ONE
OVER SOUTHERN CA THAT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY OVER THE FA BRINGING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL. HAVE LEFT NBM POPS IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. POPS, THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60 TO 70 POPS. EACH PERIOD
THERE AFTER IN THE EXTENDED HAS AT LEAST 50 POPS. ALTHOUGH THESE
ARE 12 HOUR PERIODS AND NOT ALL AREAS IN THE FA WILL BE SEEING
THESE HIGH OF POPS AT THE SAME TIME. POPS FINALLY DROP BELOW 50 BY
WED NIGHT TO AROUND 40. BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN, THE ENTIRE
FA AS A CHANCE AT PICKING UP ANOTHER 2" TO 4" OF RAIN ON AVERAGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING OF PLAYA LAKES. WPC ALREADY HAS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
36
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGHEST
AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AT ALL SITES. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES
WITH BEST TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY IF A
THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH DURING THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 48 64 41 72 / 60 30 0 10
BEAVER OK 46 70 35 76 / 80 10 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 42 66 34 74 / 90 10 0 10
BORGER TX 50 69 41 76 / 70 20 0 10
BOYS RANCH TX 48 66 40 74 / 60 30 0 10
CANYON TX 48 64 38 71 / 50 30 0 10
CLARENDON TX 51 66 43 70 / 50 40 0 10
DALHART TX 43 66 35 73 / 70 20 0 10
GUYMON OK 44 68 33 75 / 90 10 0 0
HEREFORD TX 47 65 39 73 / 40 30 0 10
LIPSCOMB TX 49 69 40 74 / 80 20 0 0
PAMPA TX 49 66 41 73 / 70 30 0 10
SHAMROCK TX 51 67 42 71 / 60 40 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 53 68 43 70 / 50 50 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05
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