554
FXUS64 KAMA 011924
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
224 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THE STORMS ARE FORMING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND COMBINES WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE ON THE LEESIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MOISTURE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INCLUDES THE PANHANDLES. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE CAMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE INDICATED
THAT A BOWING SEGMENT EMBEDDED IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OTHER
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LONE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE PLACED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AS THE LINE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH. IN ANY CASE, MOST OF THE AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. EVEN THOUGH THE MID LEVELS
ARE COOL, CAPE VALUES ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR TODAY SO HAIL PERHAPS
UP TO PING PONG BALL IS POSSIBLE IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE AND HAVE A CORE STRONG ENOUGH. THE HIGHER, AND MORE
LIKELY, HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BE UPWARDS OF 75 TO 80 MPH. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LIFT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE. IF ANY STORMS PUT OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING,
THOSE MAY ALSO BE A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
END BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COOLER DAY IS IN
STORE ON FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS KEEP A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP DOWN INTO
THE 40S TO MID 30S. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FROST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH IF
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTH TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN A
RIDGING PATTERN AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TIGHTENS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLES.
THE H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
BRINGING NOT JUST PACIFIC MOISTURE, BUT ALSO GULF OF AMERICA
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WITH PLENTIFUL LIFT PROVIDED
BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BECOMING ALMOST CERTAIN STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE
WITH HOW LONG THE BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE NOR THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE LOW TO OUR WEST,
BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SOMETHING THEY FINALLY CAN AGREE ON. IF
THE LOW ENDS UP TOO FAR EAST, THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING MAY END UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES OR INTO OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, IF IT STAYS A BIT FURTHER
WEST, CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THAT WOULD MAKE THE
PANHANDLES THE PRIMARY AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS SYSTEM NEEDS
TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT COULD LEAD TO IMPACTFUL,
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOL SIDE.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGHEST
AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AT ALL SITES. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES
WITH BEST TIMING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY IF A
THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH DURING THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 48 65 40 73 / 60 30 0 0
BEAVER OK 46 69 35 75 / 80 10 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 41 65 35 76 / 90 10 0 0
BORGER TX 49 69 41 77 / 70 20 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 49 67 41 76 / 60 30 0 0
CANYON TX 49 65 40 73 / 50 30 0 0
CLARENDON TX 51 67 42 70 / 50 40 0 0
DALHART TX 43 66 36 74 / 70 20 0 0
GUYMON OK 43 68 35 76 / 90 10 0 0
HEREFORD TX 48 66 39 74 / 40 30 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 49 68 38 73 / 80 20 0 0
PAMPA TX 49 67 40 72 / 70 30 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 52 67 41 70 / 60 40 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 53 68 43 70 / 50 50 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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