980
FXUS64 KAMA 020734
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
234 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT THROUGH
SUNRISE TODAY. AFTER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DYING OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, IN
THE 60S. LATER TODAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT, ESPECIALLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE OK PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE HAS SOME AREAS LIKE
TEXAS COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS, TO INCLUDE DOWN INTO DALHART
ACTUALLY DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING. THE NBM HAS THIS AREA GETTING
AS COLD AS 35. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE WHERE THE DEWPOINTS
STAND TONIGHT AS THEY COULD BE SITTING AROUND 33 DEGREES NOT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH FURTHER, EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN FA.
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S
AS WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE
AREA THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, EVEN THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD ONLY SEE
LOWS IN THE 40S GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
36
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NOT ONLY THAT BUT THE PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SEVERAL SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE 100 TO
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS COMING WEEK DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
SEVERE WEATHER SET UP. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE SOME
OVER ACHIEVING UPDRAFTS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE AT LEAST QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY LATER IN THE WEEK TOWARDS
THURSDAY AND BE PRIMARILY THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE
THE MAIN POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE FLOODING IF
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP DO PLAN OUT FOR SOME.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY PICKING UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST JET DYNAMICS PRESENT FOR PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN DAY FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THE DAYS TO FOLLOW WILL POSE FLOODING
RISK WITH GROUNDS POTENTIALLY SATURATED FROM MONDAY'S ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM, THERE MAY
STILL VERY WELL BE BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
KNOW THE DETAILS. TUE AND WED MAY BE AFTERNOON STORMS DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OR THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL PERTURBATIONS
AND PVA TO HELP LIFT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT.
36
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING BUT COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
OVER AMARILLO AROUND 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT THERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT ANY
TERMINALS. WILL AMEND THE TAFS IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 65 41 73 46 / 20 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 70 36 76 44 / 10 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 65 36 76 43 / 10 0 0 0
BORGER TX 70 42 77 47 / 10 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 67 41 76 46 / 20 0 0 0
CANYON TX 65 40 73 43 / 20 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 66 42 70 45 / 30 0 0 0
DALHART TX 65 36 74 42 / 20 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 68 35 76 43 / 10 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 65 39 73 43 / 10 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 68 39 73 46 / 10 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 66 40 72 46 / 20 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 68 42 71 44 / 40 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 68 42 70 44 / 40 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...52
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