116
FXUS64 KAMA 030540
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING AS CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET
FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY HAS PUSHED MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLES WITH DRIER COLDER AIR REPLACING IT. THIS IS LEADING
TO THE SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S. THIS WILL REVERSE COME
SATURDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS WARMING CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S.
SH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON
SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
TAKE THE FORM OF A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BRING SLOWLY REPLACED BY
A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS INITIALLY
KEEP THE DRIER AIR OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
CHANGING BY MID DAY AS GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT WAY INTO THE
PANHANDLES. THIS STARTS OFF IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD SO THAT BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING IT WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES. WITH THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MOISTURE WILL
FUEL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY IS WHEN THIS SYSTEM IS FIRST IMPACTING THE PANHANDLES THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF BEING LIGHT
TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A MODERATE CHANCE
OF REACHING IT'S ZENITH LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME WILL ALLOW
FOR THE FORMATION OF BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY THE MOISTURE AND THUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WEAKEN. THIS WILL MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THIS EVENT THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MOST LIKELY
RAIN AMOUNT OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE PANHANDLES WITH A FEW
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF WE GET EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES WE COULD GET A WORSE CASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES OR MORE. THE PANHANDLES ARE ALREADY WET FROM PRIOR RAINFALL
SO EVEN THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A FLOOD CONCERN.
WITH SO MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND OVERTURNING WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
HIGH CHANCE OF KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL WITH HIGHS REMAINING
STAGNANT IN THE 60S.
THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS CERTAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT
CURRENTLY THERE IS BETTER ODDS THAN NOT THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR BOTH DAYS.
SH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 TO 15 KTS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
36
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 74 46 73 48 / 0 0 10 30
BEAVER OK 75 45 77 46 / 0 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 75 43 75 44 / 10 10 10 40
BORGER TX 78 48 78 50 / 0 0 10 30
BOYS RANCH TX 76 47 76 49 / 0 0 10 50
CANYON TX 74 45 73 47 / 0 0 10 40
CLARENDON TX 71 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 20
DALHART TX 75 42 74 45 / 0 0 20 50
GUYMON OK 76 43 77 46 / 0 0 10 20
HEREFORD TX 74 45 74 48 / 0 0 20 50
LIPSCOMB TX 73 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 10
PAMPA TX 73 46 74 48 / 0 0 0 20
SHAMROCK TX 70 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 69 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...36
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