942
FXUS64 KAMA 031050
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING AS CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET
FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER THE BASE OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM IS A NARROW AND STEEP RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE HAS ANOTHER ROBUST TROUGH
FOLLOWING IN CLOSE BY. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, UNTIL THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA,
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL HAVE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER. AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOMORROW WHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NV BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UPWARDS OF 20 MPH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TO WHEN THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY SHOW UP TO THE FAR WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PLAN TO HAVE AN UMBRELLA OR RAIN COAT FOR
MONDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE.
36
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
CURRENTLY THE FA IS UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT DUE TO A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. BY TOMORROW NIGHT THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREATER ST. LOUIS AREA.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. UPSTREAM THE NEXT SYSTEM IS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NV AND SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS SECOND LOW
UPSTREAM IS TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
STARTING ON MON AS ITS PROGRESSION IS SLOWED DOWN BY THE FIRST
LOW.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUSLY, MON INTO MON NIGHT LOOKED TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. NOW MODELS ARE LEANING
TO MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. MONDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE COOL WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL STILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR MEASURING OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN AREAS ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. GOING
INTO TUE, CHANCES FOR AREAS TO RECEIVE UPWARDS OF AN INCH GO UP.
WITH THE INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE NEXT WEEK AND CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LOOKING
VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF SOME UPDRAFTS GET FAIRLY
HEALTHY, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WET
HAIL GROWTH LIMITING LARGER HAIL. TUE EVENING THE GFS HAS SOME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKING PRETTY TROPICAL WHEN SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL.
AFTER TUE, POPS DO TAPER OFF A BIT. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHAT
QPF IS REALIZED ON MON AND TUE, FLOODING ISSUES MAY REMAIN WITH
ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THU INTO FRI STORMS MAY
BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEPENDING ON HOW THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT COMES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS.
36
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 TO 15 KTS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 74 46 73 48 / 0 0 10 30
BEAVER OK 76 45 78 47 / 0 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 76 44 75 45 / 10 10 10 30
BORGER TX 78 48 78 50 / 0 0 10 20
BOYS RANCH TX 76 47 75 49 / 0 0 10 40
CANYON TX 74 45 72 47 / 0 0 10 40
CLARENDON TX 71 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 10
DALHART TX 75 42 73 45 / 0 0 20 40
GUYMON OK 77 43 77 46 / 0 0 10 20
HEREFORD TX 75 44 73 48 / 0 0 20 50
LIPSCOMB TX 74 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 10
PAMPA TX 73 47 73 49 / 0 0 0 20
SHAMROCK TX 71 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 70 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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