812
FXUS64 KAMA 032343
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT
IN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING AS CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET
FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE PEAK OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WITH SO MUCH SUN AVAILABLE THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THIS BRIEF STINT OF FAIR WEATHER COMES TO AN END BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED LOW WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS MOTION
WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PANHANDLES STARTING IN THE WEST.
THE MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE
WHOLE OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE END OF SUNDAY. WITH THE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS IS THE INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTENSITY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL INTENSITIES. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ADDITIONAL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUNDAY.
SH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
BOTTOM LINE: UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE PANHANDLES THAT CAN CAUSE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.
THE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF CONTINUING TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR MONDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW GULF MOISTURE IN THE PANHANDLES WHILE CREATING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE OVERALL
INTENSITY OF SAID ITEMS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN REACH IT
PEAK LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
HIGHEST AS THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REACH THEIR MAXIMUM OVER
THE PANHANDLES. IF THE DYNAMICS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH, THERE WILL
BE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THEN FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
FOR THE CORE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF REDUCING INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN
TO LESSER INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE. THIS PROCESS WILL HAVE A
MODERATE CHANCE OF CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A BRIEF
LULL IN THE WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL DURING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY 2 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY TO LEAD TO AT LEAST LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS THE PANHANDLES IS ALREADY
SATURATED FROM PRIOR RAINFALL THE ADDITION OF THIS RAIN WILL
LIKELY POSE A FLOOD RISK. THIS RISK WILL BE INCREASED IN AREAS
THAT SEE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OR AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED HEAVIER RAIN. WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE RAINFALL THERE IS INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK ARE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLES
TO BE STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND THE BACK END OF THE
DEPARTED WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SETUP SUGGEST THAT SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLES WITH ASSOCIATED LOW
CHANCE TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY GULF MOISTURE
WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES SO THE MOST
THE INTENSITY OF THESE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT LIGHT TO
MODERATE AT TIMES. WITH LESSER MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE
WEATHER SYSTEM TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE MORE LIKELY THAN
NOT GOING TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
SH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WINDS SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT, INCREASING TO
~20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HARREL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 46 74 48 59 / 0 0 40 90
BEAVER OK 44 79 47 66 / 0 0 10 60
BOISE CITY OK 44 75 45 58 / 10 10 50 90
BORGER TX 48 78 50 64 / 0 0 30 80
BOYS RANCH TX 46 76 50 64 / 0 10 60 90
CANYON TX 45 73 48 61 / 0 10 50 90
CLARENDON TX 46 72 49 58 / 0 0 20 80
DALHART TX 42 74 45 61 / 0 20 60 90
GUYMON OK 42 79 47 60 / 0 0 20 80
HEREFORD TX 45 74 49 65 / 0 10 60 90
LIPSCOMB TX 46 75 48 64 / 0 0 10 50
PAMPA TX 46 74 49 60 / 0 0 20 80
SHAMROCK TX 44 73 49 61 / 0 0 10 60
WELLINGTON TX 45 72 49 61 / 0 0 10 60
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38
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