828
FXUS64 KAMA 041729
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING AS CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
WET FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE PEAK OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AN OMEGA BLOCK IS SETTING UP QUITE NICELY WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER DEEPENING
OVER CENTRAL CA. THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE SMACK DAB IN THE
MIDDLE UNDER THE RIDGE. ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TODAY THE LOW
UPSTREAM OVER CA IS PROGGED TO BE POSITIONING OVER AZ. WITH THE FA
UPSTREAM THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL FALL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. PERTURBATIONS ALONG WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NM LATER TODAY WITH SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY POTENTIAL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN PRECIP CHANCES OVER TAKE THE ENTIRE
COMBINED PANHANDLES.
DUE TO THE SET UP OF THE OMEGA BLOCK THIS CLOSED LOW ON ITS WAY IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA RELATIVELY SLOWLY. HENCE THE
PROLONGED SHOT AT RAIN MAYBE EVEN HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WHEN THOSE BREAKS WILL BE IS
YET TO BE DETERMINED. CURRENT THINKING IS QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY
WILL BE HAD GOING INTO SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH A SMALL BREAK MON
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY PICKING UP LATER IN THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD GOING INTO TUE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY TROPICAL PROFILES, AND THIS MUCH MOISTURE SEVERE STORMS ARE
QUITE UNLIKELY TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
36
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD KEEP ON
CHURNING AS IT PROGRESSES OVER THE PANHANDLES TUE-WED, DRAWING
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN THE PROCESS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST, AND WE MAY EVEN FIND OURSELVES
WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AMPLE
SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTION TO PERHAPS GET A LITTLE ROWDY,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIFT FROM THE
LOW AND CONSTANT H700 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL PROLONG MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WITH OCCASIONAL DRY SLOTS BRINGING BREAKS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIP WILL DECLINE SOMEWHAT WED (30-60%
POPS), BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS. SAME TREND CONTINUES
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS, WITH ONLY 20-30% POPS.
BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM FULLY EJECTS TO OUR EAST THU-FRI, MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES
(40-70%) TO HAVE RECEIVED 2 INCHES OR GREATER OF RAINFALL. ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENT. NOT
EVERYONE IS GUARANTEED A DELUGE THIS WEEK, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE BENEFICIAL RAIN AT SOME POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST OF THE
WEEK UNTIL WE CLEAR OUT CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY ONWARD, LEAVING US BACK IN
A QUIETER PATTERN WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM THIS EVENING ALL
THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR
CONDITIONS. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO LEAD
TO VIS REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AT ALL
TERMINALS MAINLY FROM A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 49 59 49 59 / 60 90 90 90
BEAVER OK 47 65 47 59 / 10 70 60 90
BOISE CITY OK 44 57 44 55 / 60 100 80 90
BORGER TX 51 62 50 63 / 40 90 80 100
BOYS RANCH TX 49 62 49 60 / 80 100 90 90
CANYON TX 49 59 48 60 / 70 90 90 90
CLARENDON TX 49 57 50 60 / 30 90 90 90
DALHART TX 45 58 44 56 / 80 100 80 90
GUYMON OK 47 60 46 59 / 30 90 70 90
HEREFORD TX 49 62 47 61 / 80 90 90 90
LIPSCOMB TX 49 63 50 60 / 10 60 70 90
PAMPA TX 49 60 49 60 / 30 90 90 90
SHAMROCK TX 48 60 50 61 / 10 70 90 90
WELLINGTON TX 49 60 51 62 / 10 80 90 90
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98
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