653
FXUS64 KAMA 041852
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
DAYS.
- LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
BOTTOM LINE: A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING REPEATED BANDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO BOTH
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE WHOLE PANHANDLES.
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS CURRENTLY DRAWING UP MOISTURE
THROUGH NM THAT WILL THEN HAVE A NEAR CERTAIN CHANCE OF ARRIVING
BY THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. FROM HERE THE MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO FULL ENCOMPASS THE PANHANDLES BY THE
LATE MORNING OF MONDAY. THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THIS MOISTURE TO FORM BANDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL REPEATEDLY IMPACT THE
PANHANDLES. THE FIRST OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL MOST LIKELY
IMPACT THE PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS PASSES THROUGH IT
WILL MORE LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BE LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE THE
NEXT HEAVY BANDS PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
BAND HAS NEAR EQUAL CHANCES FOR BEING FOLLOWED UP BY FURTHER
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR BY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN. THEN THE NEXT
MAJOR ROUND OF RAINFALL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE
PANHANDLES FOR EARLY TO MID TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS PASSES
THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKES OVER. IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
TUESDAY THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT THESE PICK UP STEAM AGAIN
AND COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IT IS THEN MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT THE LOW CENTER PASSES INTO
THE PANHANDLES BY THE EVENING OF TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DROP
IN INTENSITY FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY OF THE
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A LOW
CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF
THESE MANAGE TO MATERIALIZE THEN THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FROM
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS EVENT STILL LOOKS TO MOST LIKELY
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER, SINCE THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF BANDS
SOME AREAS MAY SEE MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL WILL SOME AREAS MAY SEE A
LITTLE LESS. THIS MAKES BOTH FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING A BIG
CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES, AS SUCH A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR BOTH DAYS.
SH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
WEDNESDAY HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR THE CORE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM TO
MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND OF DRAWING DOWN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MAKING THEM LESS
INTENSE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN AWAY
THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EITHER CEASE OR ARE VERY ISOLATED.
SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BUT ANY RAIN
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT FORM FROM THIS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR THE WEEKEND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS COME
ABOUT IT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER AND CALMER WEATHER. THIS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND THE PATTERN COULD BE DIFFERENT
BY THE WEEKEND.
SH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM THIS EVENING ALL
THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR
CONDITIONS. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO LEAD
TO VIS REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AT ALL
TERMINALS MAINLY FROM A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PANHANDLES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
BANDS MAY CAUSE INTENSE ENOUGH RAINFALL THAT IT WILL LEAD TO FLOOD
OR FLASH FLOODING. IF NOT THEN THE REPEATING NATURE OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SATURATE THE GROUND UNTIL FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
OCCURS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO START FLOODING WILL BE AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. AS RAIN CONTINUES, FLOODING WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF IMPACTING ADDITIONAL AREAS AS WATER
ACCUMULATES. AS THIS WILL BE A MULTI DAY EVENT FLOODED AREAS MAY
SHIFT THROUGH THE EVENT. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS OR
FLOODED ROADS AS FLOOD WATERS HIDE DANGER. TURN AROUND, DONT
DROWN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 49 58 48 60 / 50 90 100 90
BEAVER OK 47 65 47 57 / 10 50 60 100
BOISE CITY OK 45 55 43 52 / 50 90 90 100
BORGER TX 52 62 50 62 / 30 80 90 100
BOYS RANCH TX 50 60 49 61 / 70 90 100 100
CANYON TX 49 57 47 61 / 60 90 100 90
CLARENDON TX 50 57 50 60 / 20 80 100 90
DALHART TX 45 57 44 56 / 70 90 90 100
GUYMON OK 47 59 46 56 / 20 80 80 100
HEREFORD TX 49 59 47 62 / 80 90 100 90
LIPSCOMB TX 49 65 49 58 / 10 50 70 100
PAMPA TX 50 59 49 58 / 20 80 90 100
SHAMROCK TX 49 61 50 60 / 10 60 90 100
WELLINGTON TX 50 60 51 61 / 10 70 90 100
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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