146
FXUS64 KAMA 050816
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
316 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
-FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOOD/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
LATEST 07Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SET OF CUT OFF H500 LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND THE
SECOND ONE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE HELPING
TO FUNNEL NORTH AN ESTABLISHED H850-700 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THE MOST EFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL (+) THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH A SECOND SOURCE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SOURCE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE WESTERN CUTOFF H500 LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO NM WITH PERTURBATION
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CENTER IN THE MAIN
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS COULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MAXIMA ENTERING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. SO WITH ALL
OF THAT SAID, THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO
TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. WITH MORE ROBUST AREAS OF LIFT CYCLONICALLY
PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT LOW, SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING AND/OR FLASH FLOODING WITH CERTAIN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM 1-2"+ WITH AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS OVER 3" OF RAIN
POSSIBLE (30-60% CHANCE). PWAT VALUES FROM THE LATEST VERTICAL
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS OF 0.8-1", THESE VALUES WILL BE IN THE
75TH-99TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR MAY. WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW AS ADVERTISED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION SHOULD FINALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FLOW
AND EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OF THE LATEST 05/00Z MODEL
AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. GOING FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST
AREAS AS A SW-NE AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, HELPING TO CLEAR OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
AS WE GO TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 15-20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. OVERALL THE FIRST 6
HOURS WILL HAVE VCSH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KAMA AND
KDHT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE 12-15Z TIME PERIOD. AFTER
15Z IFR CONDITIONS START TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. AFTER 18Z
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. PROB30S ARE IN FOR ALL TAF SITES TO
ATTEMPT TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION THE BEST, BUT LIKELY WILL NEED
SEVERAL AMENDMENTS AFTER 12Z AS TIMING AND DURATION, ESPECIALLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE MANAGED BETTER IN REAL TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 57 49 63 46 / 90 90 90 50
BEAVER OK 67 47 58 47 / 50 70 100 90
BOISE CITY OK 55 43 55 42 / 90 90 100 90
BORGER TX 61 50 64 49 / 80 90 100 70
BOYS RANCH TX 59 49 65 46 / 90 90 90 60
CANYON TX 56 48 65 45 / 90 100 90 50
CLARENDON TX 57 50 63 49 / 80 90 90 50
DALHART TX 56 44 60 42 / 100 90 90 70
GUYMON OK 60 46 57 45 / 80 90 100 90
HEREFORD TX 59 47 67 44 / 90 100 80 40
LIPSCOMB TX 65 49 59 49 / 40 80 100 80
PAMPA TX 60 49 60 48 / 70 90 100 70
SHAMROCK TX 61 50 62 51 / 50 90 100 60
WELLINGTON TX 61 51 64 51 / 60 90 100 50
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89
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