572
FXUS64 KAMA 051722
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
-FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOOD/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
LATEST 07Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SET OF CUT OFF H500 LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND THE
SECOND ONE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY. BOTH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE HELPING
TO FUNNEL NORTH AN ESTABLISHED H850-700 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THE MOST EFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL (+) THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH A SECOND SOURCE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SOURCE FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE WESTERN CUTOFF H500 LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS THE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO NM WITH PERTURBATION
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CENTER IN THE MAIN
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS COULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MAXIMA ENTERING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. SO WITH ALL
OF THAT SAID, THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO
TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. WITH MORE ROBUST AREAS OF LIFT CYCLONICALLY
PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT LOW, SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING AND/OR FLASH FLOODING WITH CERTAIN AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM 1-2"+ WITH AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AREAS OVER 3" OF RAIN
POSSIBLE (30-60% CHANCE). PWAT VALUES FROM THE LATEST VERTICAL
CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS OF 0.8-1", THESE VALUES WILL BE IN THE
75TH-99TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR MAY. WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW AS ADVERTISED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION SHOULD FINALLY GET ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FLOW
AND EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OF THE LATEST 05/00Z MODEL
AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. GOING FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST
AREAS AS A SW-NE AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, HELPING TO CLEAR OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
AS WE GO TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES
INCLUDING ALL THE TERMINALS. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE CLOUD DECK ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND THUNDER IS
CAUSING MAINLY MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY CONDITIONS HAVE A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF
DEGRADING FULLY TO IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW A EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL CAN IMPACT ANY TERMINAL TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 49 63 46 64 / 90 90 50 60
BEAVER OK 47 58 47 63 / 70 100 90 80
BOISE CITY OK 43 55 42 59 / 90 100 90 70
BORGER TX 50 64 49 67 / 90 100 70 60
BOYS RANCH TX 49 65 46 65 / 90 90 60 60
CANYON TX 48 65 45 64 / 100 90 50 50
CLARENDON TX 50 63 49 66 / 90 90 50 50
DALHART TX 44 60 42 61 / 90 90 70 50
GUYMON OK 46 57 45 62 / 90 100 90 80
HEREFORD TX 47 67 44 65 / 100 80 40 40
LIPSCOMB TX 49 59 49 65 / 80 100 80 70
PAMPA TX 49 60 48 64 / 90 100 70 60
SHAMROCK TX 50 62 51 66 / 90 100 60 50
WELLINGTON TX 51 64 51 67 / 90 100 50 50
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98
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