062
FXUS64 KAMA 052314
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
-FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOOD/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
BOTTOM LINE: A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT CAN LEAD TO FLOODING FROM
EITHER INTENSE RAINFALL AND/OR THE ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FROM
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ALREADY CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PANHANDLES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN BANDS CAUSING
BY WAVES OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS THAT MOVE AROUND THE WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FIRST OF THESE BAND HAS ALREADY PASSED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CAUSING ON AVERAGE
0.3 TO 0.66 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME SPOTS GOT HIGHER AND OTHER LOWERS
WHICH FITS THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. BEHIND THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND FURTHER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES ADDING FURTHER TO THE RAIN AMOUNTS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY BURN OFF ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PREVENT THE FORMATION
OF ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT THEN ANOTHER
HEAVY RAIN BAND MAY TRANSIT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IF THAT BAND FORMS THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW
FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS BAND WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLES UNTIL IT WEAKENS
AND BREAKS UP DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FINALLY STARTS
TO DECREASE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS THIS
BAND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ABNORMALLY HIGH SHOWING TO BE IN THE TOP 10% WHICH IS THE REASON
FOR SUCH A PROLONGED TIME FRAME OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. SUCH RAIN
CAN CAUSE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING BOTH DIRECTLY FROM INTENSE
RAINFALL OR THE GRADUAL ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FROM MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TX PANHANDLE PRIOR
RAINFALL HAS ALREADY SATURATED THE SOILS SO IT WILL TAKE LESS
RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING IN SUCH AREAS. AS SUCH A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES NOW THROUGH ALL OF
TUESDAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE HEAVY BANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND INTENSE RAINFALL. LASTLY ALL
THIS MOISTURE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL FOR BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S.
SH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF CONTINUING TO
MOVE TO THE EAST DRAWING AWAY MOISTURE FROM THE PANHANDLES. SOME
LINGERING OR EVEN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE MAKES
IT MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE LOW AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH EVEN IN THE MOST
RAINED ON AREAS. HOWEVER THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY COMPOUND
AND PROLONG ANY EXISTING FLOODING FROM BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
DRAW DOWN OF MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT GOING TO CAUSE THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CEASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE WEEKEND THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR THE WEATHER SYSTEM
TO BE FULLY SUPPLANTED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WOULD
BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A DREARY WORK WEEK OF RAIN SUNNY SKIES MAY JUST
PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND.
SH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES. WE HAVE A LITTLE BREAK NOW FOR THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT THEREAFTER WE CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PROB30S ARE PRETTY MUCH HANDLED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAFS AS THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME,
ONCE SHOWERS AND STORMS GET STARTED.
WEBER
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CAUSE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE BANDS
MAY CAUSE INTENSE RAINFALL THAT IT WILL LEAD TO FLOOD OR FLASH
FLOODING. IF NOT THEN THE REPEATING NATURE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL SATURATE THE GROUND UNTIL FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OCCURS.
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO START FLOODING WILL BE AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. AS RAIN CONTINUES, FLOODING WILL HAVE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF IMPACTING ADDITIONAL AREAS AS WATER ACCUMULATES. AS THIS
WILL BE A MULTI DAY EVENT FLOODED AREAS MAY SHIFT THROUGH THE
EVENT. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS OR FLOODED ROADS AS
FLOOD WATERS HIDE DANGER. TURN AROUND, DONT DROWN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 48 61 46 64 / 100 80 60 60
BEAVER OK 47 57 47 63 / 70 90 90 80
BOISE CITY OK 43 52 42 57 / 100 100 90 80
BORGER TX 51 62 48 67 / 90 90 80 70
BOYS RANCH TX 48 62 45 64 / 90 90 70 60
CANYON TX 48 63 44 64 / 100 80 50 50
CLARENDON TX 50 60 49 66 / 100 80 60 50
DALHART TX 45 55 42 59 / 100 90 80 60
GUYMON OK 45 55 44 61 / 90 100 90 80
HEREFORD TX 48 66 42 65 / 100 80 40 50
LIPSCOMB TX 49 57 49 65 / 80 100 80 70
PAMPA TX 49 58 47 65 / 90 90 80 60
SHAMROCK TX 51 59 50 67 / 90 90 70 50
WELLINGTON TX 51 61 51 67 / 90 90 60 40
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89
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