029
FXUS64 KAMA 061130
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
-FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOOD/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (UNDER 15% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES FROM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
LATEST 07Z OBS SHOWS A PERSISTENT RAINFALL ONGOING FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS MAIN BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND BRING RAIN TO ALL OF THE PANHANDLES AROUND
SUNRISE. THE MAIN CUTOFF LOW, NOW CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM
STATELINE CONTINUES TO ADVECT PERTURBATIONS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE PANHANDLES, ALONG WITH RICH H850-700 THETA-E VALUES. THIS
WILL BRING 0.25-0.75"/HR RAINFALL RATES, WITH RAINFALL RATES
APPROACHING 1"+ AT TIMES. WITH ONGOING FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT PWAT VALUES IN THE
75TH TO NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MAY,
AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 00Z RAOB DATA FROM AMA AND OTHER HI-RES
DATA, IT IS AN IMPACT WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY. RAINFALL COVERAGE
SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
NEW MEXICO WHERE LATEST OBS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME COULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE
RAINFALL. LATER TONIGHT, A NUDGE FROM THE PACNW H500 TROUGH WILL
DISPLACE THE H500 LOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THIS WILL
GIVE THE PANHANDLES ANOTHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS THE MAIN LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. ANY
GROUNDS SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS 24-36 HOURS OF RAINFALL WILL
NOT NEED MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, RAINFALL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES WILL
WRAP UP. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN 15%) OF A DEVELOPING SHOWER OR STORM
OVER THE NM/CO HIGH TERRAIN THAT COULD REACH THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. BUT OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST
06/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEVELOPING SW-NE LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY BY THE COMING WEEKEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES DUE TO LOW CIGS. RA AND SHRA CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW CIGS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 57 46 63 44 / 90 60 60 20
BEAVER OK 57 47 63 44 / 100 90 90 30
BOISE CITY OK 50 42 58 40 / 100 90 80 20
BORGER TX 58 48 66 46 / 100 80 60 20
BOYS RANCH TX 58 46 63 44 / 100 70 60 10
CANYON TX 58 45 63 44 / 90 50 50 10
CLARENDON TX 57 48 65 46 / 100 50 50 20
DALHART TX 53 42 60 39 / 100 80 60 10
GUYMON OK 54 44 62 41 / 100 90 80 20
HEREFORD TX 62 44 63 43 / 90 40 40 10
LIPSCOMB TX 57 49 64 46 / 100 90 70 30
PAMPA TX 56 47 64 45 / 100 80 60 20
SHAMROCK TX 57 49 66 47 / 100 70 50 30
WELLINGTON TX 58 49 67 48 / 100 60 40 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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