433
FXUS64 KAMA 061725
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
-FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOOD/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (UNDER 15% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES FROM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
LATEST 07Z OBS SHOWS A PERSISTENT RAINFALL ONGOING FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS MAIN BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND BRING RAIN TO ALL OF THE PANHANDLES AROUND
SUNRISE. THE MAIN CUTOFF LOW, NOW CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM
STATELINE CONTINUES TO ADVECT PERTURBATIONS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE PANHANDLES, ALONG WITH RICH H850-700 THETA-E VALUES. THIS
WILL BRING 0.25-0.75"/HR RAINFALL RATES, WITH RAINFALL RATES
APPROACHING 1"+ AT TIMES. WITH ONGOING FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT PWAT VALUES IN THE
75TH TO NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR MAY,
AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 00Z RAOB DATA FROM AMA AND OTHER HI-RES
DATA, IT IS AN IMPACT WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY. RAINFALL COVERAGE
SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO
NEW MEXICO WHERE LATEST OBS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME COULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE
RAINFALL. LATER TONIGHT, A NUDGE FROM THE PACNW H500 TROUGH WILL
DISPLACE THE H500 LOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THIS WILL
GIVE THE PANHANDLES ANOTHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS THE MAIN LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. ANY
GROUNDS SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS 24-36 HOURS OF RAINFALL WILL
NOT NEED MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, RAINFALL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES WILL
WRAP UP. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN 15%) OF A DEVELOPING SHOWER OR STORM
OVER THE NM/CO HIGH TERRAIN THAT COULD REACH THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. BUT OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST
06/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEVELOPING SW-NE LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY BY THE COMING WEEKEND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT ANY TERMINAL
WITH NONE CURRENTLY REFLECTED WITHIN THE TAFS. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
CAUSE OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL THE RAINFALL MAY ALLOW FOR FOG
TO FORM UNDER THIS CLOUD DECK TONIGHT AS WELL. THIS MAKES IFR OR
WORSE CONDITIONS THE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF HOLES OF BETTER
CONDITIONS BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY CLOSE. OTHERWISE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME WEAKER TONIGHT AS DIRECTIONS
SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 46 63 44 67 / 60 60 20 20
BEAVER OK 47 63 44 67 / 90 90 30 30
BOISE CITY OK 42 58 40 66 / 90 80 20 10
BORGER TX 48 66 46 70 / 80 60 20 20
BOYS RANCH TX 46 63 44 68 / 70 60 10 20
CANYON TX 45 63 44 67 / 50 50 10 20
CLARENDON TX 48 65 46 67 / 50 50 20 20
DALHART TX 42 60 39 67 / 80 60 10 10
GUYMON OK 44 62 41 68 / 90 80 20 20
HEREFORD TX 44 63 43 68 / 40 40 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 49 64 46 67 / 90 70 30 20
PAMPA TX 47 64 45 67 / 80 60 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 49 66 47 67 / 70 50 30 20
WELLINGTON TX 49 67 48 69 / 60 40 20 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98
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