288
FXUS64 KAMA 250600
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN ON WET SOIL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
COMPOUNDING FLOODING ISSUES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AS OF 10 PM, A BOUNDARY IS GENERALLY SET UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY AND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE,
A MCS IS MATURING IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, AND CAMS SUGGEST OUTFLOW FROM
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PUSH UP INTO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO RETREAT TO SOME EXTENT. MEANWHILE, A MCS IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS FAVORED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING, HELPING TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AGAIN IN
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS FAVORED
MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY NOON, THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES BY THAT TIME. AMONG THE CAMS, THE 00Z HRRR IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON
SUNDAY AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
BE FOCUSED WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY SETS UP BY MID-AFTERNOON, BUT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AS FAVORABLE FORCING MOVES IN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOST
PLENTIFUL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S, POSSIBLY AROUND 70 IF THE NAM PRODUCTS ARE TO BE BELIEVED,
THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW-60 DEGREE DEW POINTS COULD EXTEND AS
FAR WEST AS VEGA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 TO
3000 J/KG WITH HIGHER VALUES PLAUSIBLE IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TOWARD THE HIGH-END OF SOLUTIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MODEST, BUT
STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL HELP BRING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS. EXPECTING THE PRIMARY STORM MODE TO BE SUPERCELLS
OR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS, BUT THE STORM MODE SHOULD GET
INCREASINGLY MESSY GIVEN THE MOIST AND MOSTLY UNCAPPED (OR WEAKLY
CAPPED) ENVIRONMENT, AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT THERE'S
MORE! THE MODELED HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON WHICH FAVORS SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN HAZARDS LOOK
TO BE LARGE HAIL (AT LEAST INITIALLY) WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF A BASEBALL (2.75") FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IF A SUPERCELL CAN BE SUSTAINED INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEN THERE COULD BE A LOW TORNADO THREAT AS
THE LLJ INCREASES THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THESE DETAILS ASSUME THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN ROW OF LUBBOCK'S CWA (PARMER COUNTY TO CHILDRESS
COUNTY), WHICH IS WHAT MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT SHOWN BY ANY GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT, WOULDN'T
ENTIRELY BE SURPRISED IF THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EVEN FURTHER SOUTH IF
TONIGHT'S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE KANSAS MCS IS MORE POTENT THAN
THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. INTERESTINGLY, A FEW CAMS SUGGEST ALMOST
THE EXACT OPPOSITE SCENARIO: THE OUTFLOW FROM THE KANSAS MCS IS WEAK
AND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA GETS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, BUT
THIS IS CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE AN UNREALISTIC OUTLIER.
A SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE HAZARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.6" TO 0.9" IN THE WEST
TO 1" TO 1.3" IN THE EAST, WHICH IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM, AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. CURRENTLY THINKING THE MOST LIKELY RAIN RATES WITH A
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE AROUND 1-2"/HOUR, BUT A MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM COULD DROP RATES OF AS MUCH AS AROUND 3"/HOUR.
MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE LEFTOVER, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
SUNDAY. EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD SET OFF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY, AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS STILL, SOME LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP SOME DECENT RAINFALL.
INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, SO MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE SE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS SOME STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON A DAILY BASIS. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS JUST WEST OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON MOST DAYS LOOK TO BE IN
THE 70S, SO STILL A VERY SPRING LIKE FEELING AS FAR AS THESE LATE
MAY TEMPERATURES GO. PWAT'S CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY UP EACH DAY,
OVERALL THE EASTERN PANHANDLES COULD SEE RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 1.75-
3.00" RANGE AND AREAS TO THE WEST LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.50-1.45"
RANGE. SATURDAY COULD BE THE FIRST DAY WE TRANSITION BACK DO DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS A THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS PULL AWAY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENT IN PLACE FOR KDHT AND KGUY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO IFR TO LIFR, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 300 FT CEILINGS AT KGUY LATER TONIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE 300 FT AT THIS POINT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, KAMA IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED AT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH
AN EARLY ESTIMATION FOR START AND END TIMES. THESE TIMES MAY
CHANGE SOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 84 55 71 52 / 40 80 50 30
BEAVER OK 74 52 66 48 / 40 80 70 30
BOISE CITY OK 66 48 66 47 / 50 80 70 30
BORGER TX 84 57 72 53 / 40 80 60 40
BOYS RANCH TX 84 55 73 52 / 40 70 60 30
CANYON TX 86 55 72 52 / 40 70 50 30
CLARENDON TX 86 58 71 53 / 40 80 50 30
DALHART TX 72 50 69 48 / 40 70 60 30
GUYMON OK 70 50 67 47 / 40 80 70 40
HEREFORD TX 86 55 75 53 / 40 60 50 30
LIPSCOMB TX 80 55 68 51 / 30 80 60 40
PAMPA TX 83 56 69 52 / 40 80 60 40
SHAMROCK TX 87 58 71 53 / 40 80 50 40
WELLINGTON TX 89 60 73 54 / 40 80 50 40
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52
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