534
FXUS64 KAMA 251738
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
-WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
-FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
-EVERYDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH SOME THAT COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES TO WATCH CLOSELY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AN EXTENDED TIMEFRAME OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE PIVOTAL
FOR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. BUT FIRST, WE WILL TAKE A LOOK
WHAT IS GOING ON ALOFT. A CLOSED H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST FROM LAS VEGAS, NV WITH NOTABLE PERTURBATIONS OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, SW FLOW IS ADVECTING GOOD H850-700 (+) THETA-
E VALUES INTO THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. EVEN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE NOW, AS OF THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE MAIN
COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT NOT BY
MUCH. NORTHEAST AND EAST FLOW WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TD VALUES
ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLLECTION OF
THESE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND CURRENT SURFACE FEATURES
WILL DICTATE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FIRST, WITH THE APPROACHING PERTURBATION AND NORTHEAST SFC UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE NM HIGH TERRAIN, SUPERCELL AND/OR LOOSE CELL
CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES, A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT MAY START UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW, NOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NW PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDED AIDED LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS.
SOME OF THOSE COULD ALSO BE SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT.
NOW AS WE OBSERVE THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, LATEST 14-15Z HI-RES
MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA ARE NOW NOTING THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW
JUST MOVED SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL COME FROM THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NM
APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT. AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
QUICKLY. INSTABILITY OF 2500-4500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AGAIN, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TX
PANHANDLES, NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR MULTI CELL
CLUSTERS MAY STILL OCCUR. EARLY ON, VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO 3" IN
DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS, AND WITH SUB 1250M LCL VALUES AND DECENT
SHEAR, EARLIER ON, A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS, DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
QUICKLY BECOME A LINE AS LINEAR HODOGRAPHS ARE LIKELY PRESENT ALL
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION MAY
EXTEND FURTHER NORTH AND BECOME ONE LINEAR COMPLEX MOVING QUICKLY
TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THIS NEW STORM MODE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SE TX PANHANDLE MAY EXPERIENCE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 75-80
MPH AS THE LINEAR COMPLEX MOVES EAST ALONG THE STRONG LL THERMAL
DICHOTOMY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WITH MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS FLOODING IMPACTS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GOING INTO MEMORIAL DAY, THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH HELP INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN H500 TROUGH MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. MAINLY OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO WATCH THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
ON MEMORIAL DAY BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK, DAILY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION REGIME SHOULD BE INITIALIZED BY A DRYLINE SETUP. LATER
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, H500 NW FLOW FROM DISTURBANCES IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD REACH THE PANHANDLES WITH MORE CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING EACH LATER AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT KAMA WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO START AT KDHT/KGUY DUE TO LOW CIGS. A PROB30 GROUP
WAS INTRODUCED AROUND 00Z FOR KAMA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF +TSRA
CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES. GOING PAST 03-05Z, ALL
THREE TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS, THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 55 71 52 75 / 80 50 30 10
BEAVER OK 52 66 48 74 / 80 70 30 0
BOISE CITY OK 48 66 47 74 / 80 60 30 10
BORGER TX 57 72 53 78 / 80 50 30 0
BOYS RANCH TX 55 73 52 78 / 80 50 30 10
CANYON TX 55 72 52 76 / 70 40 30 10
CLARENDON TX 58 71 53 74 / 90 40 30 10
DALHART TX 50 69 48 75 / 70 60 20 10
GUYMON OK 50 67 47 74 / 80 70 30 0
HEREFORD TX 55 75 53 77 / 70 40 30 10
LIPSCOMB TX 55 68 51 74 / 80 60 40 0
PAMPA TX 56 69 52 74 / 80 50 30 10
SHAMROCK TX 58 71 53 75 / 90 40 30 10
WELLINGTON TX 60 73 54 75 / 90 40 30 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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