033
FXUS64 KAMA 261709
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
-SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
STORMS MIGHT BE SEVERE WITH 1" HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS.
-WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME THAT COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE PANHANDLES HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE MAIN SHOW
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THERE STILL SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE NEXT TROUGH IS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA, WITH
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES, HOWEVER STORMS
COULD STILL COVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE TIMING EARLIER
IN THE DAY WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS, AND FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES,
IT SHOULD JUST BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. BUT STILL CAPE VALUES IN
THE 500 J/KG RANGE AND 30 TO 40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, NOT GOING TO RULE
OUT A STRONG STORM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON, WE MAY GET A LITTLE BREAK AND POSSIBLY SOME CLEARING.
THAT WILL GIVE US SOME SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE, THAT
WILL BRING IN SOME STEEPER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES, AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO
JUST A LITTLE AFTER. A COUPLE MODELS MAY LINGER THAT ACTIVITY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AND START TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S, SO STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT GIVEN THE MOSTLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IT SHOULD BE A MORE QUIET DAY AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
GO, IT LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED TO NIL.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
DESPITE THE BREAK THAT WE MAY SEE ON TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
PATTERN WILL RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THAT SETS UP A
MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE AND IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WE START TO
SEE A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING
US BACK TO NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STILL MAY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES AND ALL
TERMINALS WITH RAIN SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CLOUDS, AND
MIST/FOG. CURRENTLY A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
PASSING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. THIS BAND THEN
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING A BRIEF WINDOW OF IMPROVED
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE MID AFTERNOON UP TO VFR. THEN
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH DEGRADING CONDITIONS AGAIN TO
MVFR TO IFR. ONCE THIS BAND DEPARTS IN THE LATE EVENING A DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF STAYING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOG MAY DEVELOP UNDER THIS LOW CLOUD DECK LEADING TO FURTHER
REDUCED CONDITIONS LIFR OR BELOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 54 73 54 75 / 40 10 20 30
BEAVER OK 49 71 49 72 / 50 0 10 40
BOISE CITY OK 47 72 49 75 / 40 10 20 40
BORGER TX 54 75 54 78 / 40 10 20 30
BOYS RANCH TX 53 76 54 78 / 30 10 20 40
CANYON TX 53 74 53 75 / 30 10 20 30
CLARENDON TX 55 73 54 72 / 30 10 10 20
DALHART TX 49 73 50 75 / 30 10 20 30
GUYMON OK 49 71 49 73 / 40 10 20 50
HEREFORD TX 53 76 54 77 / 40 10 20 30
LIPSCOMB TX 52 71 51 73 / 50 10 10 30
PAMPA TX 54 72 53 74 / 40 10 10 30
SHAMROCK TX 55 73 53 74 / 30 0 10 20
WELLINGTON TX 57 74 53 74 / 30 0 10 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...98
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