631
FXUS64 KAMA 262358
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
-SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN IN THE
EVENING. LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE WITH 1" HAIL AND 60
MPH WINDS.
-WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME THAT COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. CURRENTLY
BEST CHANCES REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES WITH ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A SMALL
DISTURBANCE FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES CAUSING THE ONGOING LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE
ARE MORE POTENT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHICH WERE NOT WORKED
OVER BY THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION THERE IS A SMALL
MCV THAT HAS FORMED ON THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE WHICH
WILL FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL DYNAMICS AS
SUCH THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
WEAK WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST CLIP TO THE EAST SUCH THAT IT
SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEHIND THIS LINE CONDITIONS MAY CLEAR OUT ALLOWING FOR SOME
DAYTIME HEATING TO REBUILD INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
COME INTO PLAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN THE
MAIN PORTIONS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF FLARING UP ANOTHER
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLES IS BEING WORKED OVER LESS BY THE CURRENT WAVE IT STAND
TO REASON THAT HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED THERE. THIS MEANS
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BE MORE ACTIVE IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES THAN THE NORTHERN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
THE STORMS WITH THE MAIN WAVE MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
WINDS AND HAIL REMAINING THE MAIN THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG WITH THE MAIN PORTIONS OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM. WHILE ALL THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FLOODING THROUGH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
HITTING THE SAME SPOT. THERE IS THEN A MODERATE CHANCE FOR MISTY
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE RAIN/THUNDER. THEN FOR
TUESDAY A BRIEF RIDGE HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF PASSING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES BRINGING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO STOP ALL CONVECTION WITH THERE BEING A
LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT IS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT ANY STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME STRONG MUCH LESS
SEVERE.
SH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE SUCH THAT IT WILL HAVE A MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCE OF CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE
WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH WILL STILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM JUST AT A LESSER AMOUNT AND INTENSITY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THEN FOR THE WEEKEND THERE IS A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR DAILY
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMATION OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO
GET INGESTED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. IF THIS COMES TO PASS
THEN MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND INSTEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. SO CONFIDENCE
IN ANY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME AS MANY UNCERTAIN VARIABLES REMAIN IN PLAY.
SH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OR AT LEAST BE WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. LOW CEILINGS POTENTIALLY AS
LOW AS IFR ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING IN THE
MORNING-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KTS.
HARREL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 52 74 56 77 / 50 10 10 40
BEAVER OK 50 71 52 76 / 30 10 20 60
BOISE CITY OK 47 75 51 77 / 50 10 20 60
BORGER TX 54 76 56 80 / 40 10 10 40
BOYS RANCH TX 52 76 56 81 / 50 10 20 50
CANYON TX 52 75 55 78 / 50 10 20 40
CLARENDON TX 54 73 56 75 / 50 10 10 30
DALHART TX 48 74 51 78 / 40 10 10 50
GUYMON OK 49 73 51 76 / 40 10 20 60
HEREFORD TX 52 77 56 79 / 50 10 20 40
LIPSCOMB TX 52 71 54 75 / 40 10 10 40
PAMPA TX 52 73 56 75 / 50 10 10 40
SHAMROCK TX 54 73 55 76 / 40 10 10 20
WELLINGTON TX 56 73 56 77 / 40 10 10 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38
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