064
FXUS64 KAMA 270727
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
227 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
-THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE WITH 1" HAIL
AND 60 MPH WINDS.
-WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME THAT COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. CURRENTLY
BEST CHANCES REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AND/OR EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE SEEING, COULD COMBINE WITH ANY SUBTLE
PERTURBATION ALOFT OF LOW LEVEL JET AND CREATE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL GOING INTO TODAY, AS TUESDAY WAS
SUPPOSED TO BE A FAIRLY QUITE DAY WITH A BREAK FROM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, LOOKING AT SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, THERE ARE SOME MODELS
LIKE THE GFS THAT MAY STILL CONVECT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
BREAKAGE IN THE CLOUDS THE AREA CAN GET GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
IN ORDER TO POP A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE MORE ISOLATED, BUT IF STORMS CAN BREAK ANY CAP IN PLACE WOULD
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
TONIGHT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SHOULD PRIMARILY BE QUIET ALTHOUGH. SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE
ACTIVITY EITHER IN THE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN ACTIVITY WOULD BE WED
MORNING AS MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE COMPLEX COMING INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE FROM SW KS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PRIMARILY
ONLY IMPACT THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK PANHANDLE INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE TX PANHANDLE WED MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. LATER IN THE DAY, LATE AFTERNOON
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAY
TIME HEATING MAY BRING IN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE WED. MODELS
HINT AT A LINE OF STORMS MOVING FROM THE WNW TO ESE THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW THIS MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE DAY LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY A WIND BAG DAY.
36
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY POST FRONT. THE NBM
DOES GIVE 20 TO 30 POPS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOLUTIONS THAT
SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN ACTUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE NBM
DOES NOT HAVE VERY HIGH POPS, LESS THAN 20, THROUGH THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GREAT
H7 THETA-E ADVECTION AND DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE THE
START OF JUNE, ON SUNDAY, AS TEMPERATURES TRY TO REACH THE LOWER
90S ON MONDAY.
36
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ONCE AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA IS BRINGING SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR TO IFR, POTENTIALLY LIFR AS WELL, CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z OR SO WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY ONE
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT A TERMINAL. THEREFORE, HAVE LEFT OUT THE
MENTIONS OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
36
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 73 56 77 56 / 20 20 40 60
BEAVER OK 71 54 77 52 / 20 20 60 80
BOISE CITY OK 74 51 79 50 / 20 10 40 60
BORGER TX 76 58 81 57 / 20 10 50 70
BOYS RANCH TX 75 56 82 55 / 20 10 40 60
CANYON TX 74 56 79 54 / 20 20 40 60
CLARENDON TX 72 57 75 57 / 20 20 40 60
DALHART TX 74 52 79 51 / 20 10 40 60
GUYMON OK 73 52 79 51 / 20 20 50 70
HEREFORD TX 75 57 80 54 / 20 20 40 60
LIPSCOMB TX 71 56 76 54 / 20 20 50 80
PAMPA TX 72 56 76 56 / 20 20 50 70
SHAMROCK TX 73 56 76 57 / 20 20 40 70
WELLINGTON TX 74 58 76 58 / 20 20 40 70
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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