516
FXUS64 KAMA 281121
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, WITH
ALL HAZARDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- LOWER CHANCES FOR STORMS THU-SUN, BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES
NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
OUR ATTENTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IS SET ON THE PROGRESSION
OF CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A 500MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES LEAVES
NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE PLAINS, WHICH IS HELPING TO NUDGE STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. CAMS HAVE FLIP-
FLOPPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER OR NOT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP TO THE PANHANDLES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS. BASED ON THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLORADO CONVECTION, ALONG WITH THE
RECOVERY ACHIEVED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORMS, THE NORTH
AND EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES HYPOTHETICALLY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ONCE IT ARRIVES. THERE ARE
STILL SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS THAT DEPICT SHOWERS AND STORMS DYING
AS THEY ENTER THE PANHANDLES THOUGH, LIKELY DUE TO LESS
INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO SURVIVE COULD STILL HAVE
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS (20-40% CHANCE BEFORE
MIDDAY).
THE REST OF TODAY'S FORECAST IS TRICKY, AS ANY MORNING ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, MOST MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PANHANDLES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE, EVEN IF THE MORNING
STORMS ROLL THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES (1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE). THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SHEAR PROFILES OF 25-35 KTS 0-6KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TODAY, FOCUSED ON AREAS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SFC DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S UNFORTUNATELY WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES WITH ANY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES
THAT MAY DEVELOP. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, PWATS OF ~1-1.25" WILL PROMOTE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES, LEADING TO A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, ALSO PEAKING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO APPROACH FROM OUR WEST AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE BY THE TIME THEY ENTER
THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE 60S AND LOW 70S, GIVING LESS FUEL FOR STORMS LATER IN THE DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOUT A 20-30% FOR GENERALLY LIGHTER
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
STORM CHANCES WON'T DISAPPEAR TO CAP OFF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL APPEAR TO DECREASE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE, SHOULD BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WON'T BE
LACKING, SO 10-20% CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE LATE MAY
- EARLY JUNE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE WE RESUME AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK, BUT
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND TRAVERSE OVER THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE THE BULK OF
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ULTIMATELY SETS UP, BUT FOR NOW
WE'RE LOOKING AT ~20-30% CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STORM CHANCES, BUT MAY SERVE
TO PUSH THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR CWA. IF THE DRYLINE CAN BE
MAINTAINED FURTHER WEST AS INDICATED BY A HANDFUL OF GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS, WE MAY HAVE TO MONITOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW CLOUDS PRESENT EARLY THIS AM ONCE AGAIN. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER THE SUN HAS BEEN UP FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 18Z
AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THE TERMINALS TO BE
IMPACTED BY THUNDER GO UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 23Z TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS RETURNING AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGERING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 80 54 68 52 / 20 50 10 30
BEAVER OK 75 50 68 47 / 60 80 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 82 47 66 48 / 40 50 10 30
BORGER TX 83 55 70 52 / 20 60 10 30
BOYS RANCH TX 84 55 71 52 / 20 40 10 30
CANYON TX 81 54 70 51 / 20 40 10 30
CLARENDON TX 77 56 69 52 / 20 50 10 30
DALHART TX 82 50 68 48 / 20 40 10 20
GUYMON OK 80 49 67 48 / 50 70 10 20
HEREFORD TX 81 55 71 52 / 20 30 10 30
LIPSCOMB TX 76 52 68 49 / 40 80 10 10
PAMPA TX 77 54 67 51 / 20 60 10 30
SHAMROCK TX 76 55 69 51 / 20 60 10 20
WELLINGTON TX 77 58 71 53 / 20 50 20 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36
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