786
FXUS64 KAMA 290530
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, WITH ALL HAZARDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOS WITHIN
LINES OF STORMS THAT MAY BE HARD TO DETECT DUE TO RANGE FROM
RADAR.
- LOWER CHANCES FOR STORMS THU-SUN, BUT THEN A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WORK WEEK WITH BETTER DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
BOTTOM LINE: A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MCS FORMATION THIS EVENING
THAT CAN CAUSE TORNADOS, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING
RAINS.
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE
PANHANDLES. THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAG
A LITTLE JET ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A
BUILDING OF A RIDGE TO THE SW WHICH WILL PUSH A DIFFERENT PIECE OF
JET ENERGY INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND EXHAUSTION FOR TODAYS
ACTIVE WEATHER. AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM CLEARING CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO 1500 TO 3000 J/KG CAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. FURTHER THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FAVOR A MORE DISCRETE STORM FORM TO
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS DURING THIS TIME ARE STILL
INCREASING SO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS DURING THIS
TIME. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND MORE SO DURING THE EVENING
AROUND 6PM THE DYNAMICS RAMP UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND HELICITY. THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIME
WILL SHIFT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF LINES.
THIS MAY CUMULATIVE WITH THE FORMATION OF A SQUALL LINE TO FULL
FLEDGED MESO- CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) THAT PASSES NW TO SE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. DURING THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP THAT
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL HELICITY TO OVER 400 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF
30 TO 40KT AHEAD OF MCS. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORMATION OF TORNADOS AS THE EVENING
DRAGS ON. GIVEN THE LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION THIS TORNADOS MAY
FAVOR QUICK SPIN UP OF QLCS WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR BOOK END
VORTICES AND LEWPS THAT CAN PRODUCE STRONGER LONGER LASTING
TORNADOS. WITH SUCH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS UPDRAFTS TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
OR EVEN SURPASSING 2 INCHES IN SIZE. ALSO THE LINEAR NATURE OF
THE STORMS IS INDICATIVE THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO CAUSE STRONG
GUSTS FRONTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE FUELING
THIS EVENT THE PW WITHIN THE LINES OF STORMS CAN REACH OR EVEN
EXCEED 1.25 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS MUCH AVAILABLE WATER WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN EITHER LEAD DIRECTLY TO FLASH
FLOODING FROM INTENSE RAINFALL OR FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER ALREADY WET GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE MCS DEPARTS TO THE SE
IN OK PROPER AND N TEXAS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN INTO
THE EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT SOME DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL CREATING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. CURRENTLY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF
THURSDAY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BUT THESE CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE
MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN THE
TEMPERATURES.
SH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND STILL FAVORS A BROAD NW FLOW TO WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND FOR THE PASSAGE OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS ALREADY HINTS THAT THE DRY LINE MAY MAKE IT RETURN TO THE
PANHANDLES BY MID NEXT WEEK WHICH CAN ACT AS A FURTHER FOCUS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. CLOSER TO SUNRISE, SOME MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WHERE AMD MAY BE NEEDED, DEPENDING ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS RETURNING TO
THESE LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 69 52 77 56 / 10 30 10 10
BEAVER OK 69 49 79 54 / 10 10 0 10
BOISE CITY OK 66 48 82 52 / 20 20 10 10
BORGER TX 71 54 81 60 / 10 20 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 70 52 81 56 / 10 30 10 20
CANYON TX 69 52 77 56 / 10 30 10 20
CLARENDON TX 69 53 74 58 / 10 20 10 10
DALHART TX 67 49 80 52 / 10 20 10 10
GUYMON OK 68 48 80 54 / 10 20 10 10
HEREFORD TX 72 53 79 57 / 10 40 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 69 50 78 55 / 10 10 0 10
PAMPA TX 68 52 77 57 / 10 20 10 10
SHAMROCK TX 69 52 76 56 / 10 20 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 71 54 76 57 / 20 20 10 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...29
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