978
FXUS64 KAMA 290826
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
326 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
-DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEK GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
LATEST 08Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS NOW REACHED
THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. H500
PERTURBATIONS IN THE MEAN NW FLOW IS STILL GENERATING SHOWERS AND
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SHOULD WANE AS WE GO PAST SUNRISE, AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING, WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER COMPARED TO AVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW AND MID 70S IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WHETHER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH MAY DEVELOP AND REACH AS FAR NORTH
AS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES AND/OR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER THE CO/NM TERRAIN MAY HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION REACH THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES, THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN FOR TOMORROW AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S AND SOME
AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL PERTURBATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT DEVELOP HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY BE UNDER SOME STRONGER STEERING FLOW WHERE THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO. BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY FOR TOMORROW.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SERIES OF H500 NW FLOW OF PERTURBATIONS FROM THE ROCKIES AND/OR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AS SEEN BY THE LATEST 29/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL
DATA SHOULD PROVIDE NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PANHANDLES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. NOT ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES WILL SEE RAIN EACH DAY, IT JUST DEPENDS ON THE TIMING
OF EACH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT INFLUENCES THE PANHANDLES THAT
INCLUDES TIMING OF PEAK HEATING FOR INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE GO INTO EARLY
JUNE.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. CLOSER TO SUNRISE, SOME MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR CIGS MAYBE
POSSIBLE WHERE AMD MAY BE NEEDED, DEPENDING ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS RETURNING TO
THESE LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 69 52 77 56 / 10 30 10 10
BEAVER OK 66 47 80 54 / 20 10 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 66 46 81 50 / 10 30 0 0
BORGER TX 70 53 81 57 / 0 20 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 71 52 82 56 / 0 30 10 10
CANYON TX 70 52 78 56 / 10 30 10 10
CLARENDON TX 69 53 75 57 / 10 30 20 0
DALHART TX 68 48 80 52 / 0 20 0 10
GUYMON OK 66 47 81 52 / 10 20 10 0
HEREFORD TX 73 53 79 56 / 10 30 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 67 49 78 55 / 10 20 10 0
PAMPA TX 67 52 77 56 / 10 20 10 0
SHAMROCK TX 69 52 77 56 / 20 20 10 0
WELLINGTON TX 71 54 76 57 / 20 30 20 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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