246
FXUS64 KAMA 292327
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH TONIGHT
- MULTIPLE DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOME DAYS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WIDESPREAD IN THE UPPER-50S TO 60S. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
COLORADO ROCKIES, TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED, SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.2", WITH AROUND A 10-30% CHANCE TO SEE
MORE THAN THAT.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
FRIDAY LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE AROUND 10%, FOCUSED ON THE
FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STAYS IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUCH THAT THE ACTIVITY
COULD STAY WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. NBM HAS LESS THAN
10% POPS IN FOR NOW WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE BEING FURTHER WEST.
A RIDGE BUILDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST IN FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECTING AROUND 10 MPH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND
DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK DRYLINE SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES, AND
SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT, THE
DRYLINE IS FAVORED TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES. THE NBM HAS THE COLD
FRONT MOVING IN LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
80S TO LOW-90S, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE THE COLD
FRONT TRENDS QUICKER. THIS WOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CAN RETURN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE IS TOO LOW TO SAY MUCH
MORE.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE WAS SEEING
INCOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM STRUGGLE TO STAY MAINTAINED AS
THEY PUSH INTO THE NW PANHANDLES. THIS STRUGGLE IS MOSTLY DUE TO
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRESENT CLOUD COVER CREATING A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND/OR A ROUGE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO BE PRESENT
OVER KDHT AND KGUY, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE MENTION IN FORM OF
VICINITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, FOCUS IS ON THE LOW CLOUD DECK THE
CONTINUE TO HOLD KAMA AT MVFR LEVEL. AT THIS TIME, LATEST
SATELLITE IS STILL HOLDING THE CLOUD DECK STRONG, SO HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR INTO THE LATE NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 53 78 58 86 / 40 20 10 0
BEAVER OK 47 78 54 88 / 20 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 47 82 53 84 / 40 10 0 0
BORGER TX 55 82 58 89 / 40 20 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 54 81 57 87 / 40 10 10 0
CANYON TX 53 78 56 86 / 40 20 10 10
CLARENDON TX 54 76 58 86 / 50 20 0 0
DALHART TX 49 80 52 84 / 40 10 10 0
GUYMON OK 48 81 53 87 / 30 10 0 0
HEREFORD TX 53 79 57 87 / 40 10 10 10
LIPSCOMB TX 50 77 56 87 / 20 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 53 78 58 86 / 40 20 10 0
SHAMROCK TX 54 77 57 86 / 40 20 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 55 77 58 87 / 50 20 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page