261
FXUS64 KAMA 130515
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1215 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
- 90'S RETURN TODAY AND MAY LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME AREAS LIKE
PALO DURO CANYON MAY SEE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
STILL WATCHING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. ONLY
LOOKING AT A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF
THE STORMS CAN SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE THE FACTORS LIMITING THE STORM
ACTIVITY.
TOMORROW, EXPECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH BETTER STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RAP HAS MUCAPE UPWARDS OF
3700 J/KG TOMORROW. DCAPE IS PROGGED TO BE UPWARDS OF 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS SET UP. LCLS ARE LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 3 KM MAKING
TORNADOES VERY UNLIKELY. STORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED, WITH A
POTENTIAL TO BE SCATTERED. TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM
7 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR EVENING TO OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR
PERTURBATIONS TO HELP WITH LIFT. MOISTURE IS LOOKING TO PLENTIFUL
THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE NO REAL STRONG SIGNALS FOR SEVERE STORMS, WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. ESPECIALLY FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THOUGH
NOT REAL LIKELY, THERE MAY BE SOME DAYS WHERE THE CAPE AND SHEAR
WILL PAN OUT TO HAVE POTENTIAL 2" HAIL STILL. H5 TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE RISE BUT STILL NOT QUITE WARM ENOUGH TO BRUSH OFF THE
SIG HAIL JUST YET. QUICKLY SKIMMING THROUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MUCH HIGHER LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT.
THE OTHER NOTE WORTHY THING TO MENTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS LIKE THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY
AND PALO DURO CANYON ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, NOT
EXPECTING ANY HEAT HEADLINES, BUT WOULD NOT COMPLETELY BRUSH IT OFF,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WED WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS LATE IN THIS
24 HOUR PERIOD. WILL KEEP MENTIONS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AND
WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY/HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEFORE ADDING
IN ANY MENTIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10-15 KTS OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING OVER THE
TERMINALS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05
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