068
FXUS64 KAMA 130708
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
208 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MOST
EVENINGS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 100 OR
SLIGHTLY OVER ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
H500 HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAK WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES BUT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO OUT OF THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND
SHIFT WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ALLOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER ON IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS, LOW
LEVEL WAA IS VERY LIKELY GIVEN THE RIDGING PATTERN BUILDING OVER THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD ENABLE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TO
REACH THE 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT THE USUAL WARM SPOTS COULD GET CLOSE
TO REACHING 100, BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AS PALO DURO
CANYON HAS ONLY BEEN AROUND 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN KAMA DURING THE
LAST WEEK. WITH KAMA FORECAST TO REACH 92-93, PDC MAY GET CLOSE TO
100, BUT USING PERSISTENCE, IT SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT. IN EITHER
CASE, TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO HEAD OUT
TO PDC THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PANHANDLES HAVE NOT SEEN TOO MANY HOT
DAYS SO FAR THIS SEASON.
AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING, PVA ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN NM AND INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLES. EVEN THOUGH HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TODAY, THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO FORM THIS EVENING. DUE TO WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST
AROUND 1500 J/KG, LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE 13/00Z HREF MEMBERS
INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING COULD QUICKLY
GO LINEAR WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH DCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
1750-2000 J/KG, WHICH MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
70 TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 80 MPH WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT SHOULD BE OVER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK WILL BE HIGHER ON
SATURDAY FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY AND PDC AND THE 13/01Z NBM
PROBABILITY TO REACH 100 IS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT FOR THOSE AREAS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS JUST BELOW 100, BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE START THE WEEKEND. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TREK OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN WITH A LOW
THREAT TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS INITIALLY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, BUT THAT THREAT IS VERY, VERY LOW AND THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM ON
SATURDAY EVENING. IF ANY STORMS FORM, THEY WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE
INTO OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MILD, NEAR AVERAGE
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE SHOULD
BE TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED AS OUR NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD, LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE
RETURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
HIGHS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HIGHS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOW
MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AND IT'S TRAJECTORY. A STRONGER TROUGH THAT DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH COULD PUT THE WHOLE CWA BACK IN THE 80'S. AT THIS TIME, MODELS
FAVOR A WEAK TROUGH THAT MAY ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES 5-7 DEGREES
COMPARED TO DAYS PRIOR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE TYPE OF CONVECTION WE RECEIVE IS STILL IN QUESTION, ALONGSIDE
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS. THE PERCENT CHANCE AND COVERAGE
FROM NBM POPS REFLECT THESE CONCERNS, AND THAT'S WHY THEY REMAIN
LOW. AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
DISAPPEAR AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETURN OVER THE
AREA.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS LATE IN THIS
24 HOUR PERIOD. WILL KEEP MENTIONS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW AND
WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY/HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEFORE ADDING
IN ANY MENTIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10-15 KTS OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING OVER THE
TERMINALS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05
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