192
FXUS64 KAMA 140525
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
-A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WHERE SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
-TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
AS OF THE LATEST 18Z SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, A PERTURBATION IN THE
MID LEVELS NEAR THE APEX OF A H500 LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS HELPING FOR LIFT AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. LATEST 18Z RAOB DATA
OUT AHEAD OF THE H500 LEVEL PERTURBATION OVER KAMA SHOWS AMPLE
INSTABILITY WITH AVERAGE MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-200 J/KG, WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND GENERAL STEERING FLOW ALOFT BOTH UNDER 20
KTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP, PERHAPS ONE OR TWO DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TX PANHANDLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE MORE HYBRID SUPERCELL AT
FIRST WITH MORE ESTABLISHED UPDRAFTS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NM
AND THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITHIN THE WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, MULTI-CELL
TO LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN STORM MODE FOLLOWING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW AND/OR COLD POOL BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS NEW STORM MODE IN DCAPE ENVIRONMENT
OVER 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
AS THE STORMS PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 10 PM AND
1 AM FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE H500 HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, THE PERIPHERY OF SAID FEATURE WILL HAVE H500
NW WINDS THAT WILL STEER ANY ADDITIONAL DAYTIME CONVECTION FROM
NM AND CO INTO THE NW PANHANDLES. LATEST 13/12-18Z HI-0RES DATA IS
NOW SHOWING MUCH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE NW
PANHANDLES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO MORE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW> NONETHELESS, STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY
STORMS THAT COULD BE SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
NW H500 FLOW AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. NW AND WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHERE DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TO WATCH. THEN THE MAIN SW-NE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GOING INTO EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE, A FEW LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING PALO DURO CANYON MAY REACH THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MID WEEK SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD ROTATE CLOCKWISE TO
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND BE AROUND 10-20 KTS. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...05
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