966
FXUS64 KAMA 140708
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
208 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A VERY LOW CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STAGNANT TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO JUST OVER THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS, MORESO ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. FOR TODAY,
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO HAVE AT LEAST A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, VERY LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES AS WELL
AS THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL VERY
LIKELY LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL TO A FEW ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.
STORM CORES COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE,
BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES IN THE VERY WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF TODAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. INSTEAD OF MOSTLY MID 90S HIGHS, MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY
HIT THE UPPER 90S AND SOME OF THE KNOWN HOT SPOTS COULD EASILY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ON SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON HOW MUCH WARMER PALO DURO CANYON IS THAN AMARILLO, AS THE
CANYON FLOOR COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS FLOOR ALREADY HIT THE 100 DEGREE MARK YESTERDAY. FOR
THE THUNDERSTORM SIDE OF THINGS, ISOLATED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT ANY STORMS BECOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE PRIMARY RISK CONTINUING TO
BE DOWNBURST WINDS AS STORM CORES WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED BY A QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO 105 FOR SOME AREAS. TUESDAY DOES LOOK TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY, WITH THE ENTIRE CWA HAVING AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
AT REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE 14/01Z NBM. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
ON EITHER OF THESE DAYS APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE ARE
SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS THAT DO HAVE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
FORM ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. AS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS TIME OF YEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE BROAD RIDGING PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOOKS TO
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES AROUND OR ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES BUT IN GENERAL SHOULD ROTATE CLOCKWISE TO
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND BE AROUND 10-20 KTS. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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